Should you always call with an edge?

[LetsRock]

It depends. (Surprise!)

If calling that bet will cripple you then no way. In tourney situations it's rarely correct to push slight edges on a bet that will cost you your seat.

If your against the wall and the blinds are going to eat you up, then probably - this may be your best bet to get back into things.

If you have a HUGE chip lead and the amount is not gonna hurt then maybe. Is the opponent one you fear with a larger stack? - probably not. Is the opponent going to just piss the chips away? - probably.

There's lots of variables in making big calls in tourney play.

I don't see your edge as being all that great - yes you have 14 outs, but you're not getting even close to correct odds to call just over even money. You only have about a 30% chance of winning and you need help.

I will rarely put my tourney on the line on a draw.

[Michael Davis]

"especially in not in tournaments."

Explain a situation where you would fold with an edge in a cash game. The "especially" in your statement makes little sense.

-Michael

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see your edge as being all that great - yes you have 14 outs, but you're not getting even close to correct odds to call just over even money. You only have about a 30% chance of winning and you need help.


[/ QUOTE ]

14 outs actually makes you a slight favorite.

[mistrpug]

[ QUOTE ]
"especially in not in tournaments."

Explain a situation where you would fold with an edge in a cash game. The "especially" in your statement makes little sense.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy. Same situation as this one, the all-in is for your entire bankroll, and you are easily the best player at the table

[LetsRock]

[ QUOTE ]
14 outs actually makes you a slight favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure that? The other player has 31 "outs" to beat you?

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
14 outs actually makes you a slight favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure that? The other player has 31 "outs" to beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]
There are two cards to come. If there are no redraws, you lose only if you miss twice. That happens (31/45)(30/44) = 47.0% of the time.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=472545
K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
cards <font color="white">filler</font> EV
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.516
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.484

[xrongor]

you should always call when you think you can WIN. factors include the percentages and how well you read the table.

if you dont think you can win, dont call unless you're either purposely buying information or advertising.

randy

[xrongor]

[ QUOTE ]
HOWEVER.... same edge, different stakes: $51,000 when I'm right, $49,000 when I'm wrong, and I'm not so quick to jump into the coin-flipping game, despite the edge, as randomly losing a quick quarter-million isn't my idea of a gamble worth taking, despite the edge.


[/ QUOTE ]

well, if he let you flip the coin forever and you didnt have to pay til the end, how could you not?

randy

[Michael Davis]

If I have 22 on an AKQ flop I can win. Should I call. Suppose I have three opponents all who limped and have called one bet on the flop.

-Michael

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
My opp bet all-in on me. About T1400 into a T200 pot. I figure I'm about 55-45 favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you have an advantage, chip value is nonlinear heads-up. See the goal-oriented risk of ruin. In some models, the probability of winning with a fraction x of the chips takes the form (c^x-1)/(c-1), where c depends on your advantage or disadvantage.

In order to prefer (c^(1400/3000)-1)/(c-1) to .55, c&lt;=.511, so the probability of winning from the start of the match must be at least (.511^.5-1)/(.511-1) = 58.3%.

It's no accident that 58.3% is the 55% chance you estimate for this pot plus 3.3% = 100/3000, the fraction of the chip pool you put into the pot.

If you only have a 50% chance to win if you call all-in, you are better off folding if c&lt;=.765, corresponding to a 53.3% chance to win from the start.