2004 Political Prediction - Page 2

Dynasty · #11 03-15-2003, 07:09 PM

Dean. Dean. Dean.

Everytime the Democrats have a polical rally like the one they had this weekend in California, it's Howard Dean gets the crowd roaring. If he can raise some decent money, he's going to win the nomination.

About 3 months ago, I thought Dean was destined to get 1-2% in Iowa and New Hampsire. Now, I think he's going to be the real outside threat to win the nomination.

Jimbo · #12 03-16-2003, 02:17 AM

Getting Californians to cheer for you simply requires a liberal slant in your speech and a lot of Republican bashing. To become the parties nominee for president however requires at least some small chance to actually be elected. Being a republican I would love to see Dean become the nominee, alas those tricky democrats may not be so cooperative.

adios · #13 03-17-2003, 12:14 PM

There was good article IMO about Dean in the Wall Street Journal last week. IMO he does have a message that is appealing to many in the electorate i.e. being liberal on personal freedom (I don't know where he stands on gun control though) and fiscally conservative. Also Dean has taken the gloves off regarding his Democratic opponents more or less stating that nominating an "inside the beltway" type would guarantee a loss for the Democrats in the next presidential election.

adios · #14 03-17-2003, 03:52 PM

"Bush will cheat again."

Oh really I wasn't aware of any cheating in the first place. Do tell!!!!!!!!!!

"The Republican party will permit only Christian faith based initiatives. Praying to Jesus or Moses will be allowed in public schools, but only if a child signs an affidavit declaring that the Koran was writen by Satan."

Ah you're funnin me [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img] [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img].

"Abortion will be outlawed."

Partial birth abortions are at this point. I doubt if all will be though.

"Corporate graft will be legal, but only if you steal over 100 million dollars (otherwise, you are a proletarian crook, and an obvious commie)."

I wasn't aware of any laws being repealed. Ah come on you're funnin me again.

"Term limits for the President will be repealed."

This would take an ammendment to the constitution. Is there one in the works right now? If so could you provided a link?

"Speaking out against the President will be made a crime."

I'm sure brad has a link to support this contention [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img] [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img] [img]/forums/images/icons/cool.gif[/img].

brad · #15 03-17-2003, 03:59 PM

'Partial birth abortions are at this point.'

theyre illegal right now? why is legislation pending which would outlaw them?

tewall · #16 03-17-2003, 04:08 PM

Americans are very short-sighted when it comes to presidential politics. Assuming the war goes well and the economy is improving, Bush will be unbeatable. If the economy is going poorly, Bush could be in trouble regardless of what happens with the war. The president get the blame or the credit for the economy regardless of whether he had anything to do with it. That's just the way it is.

There is one scenario where I could see Bush winning even if the economy is going poorly. That is, if there is another terroist attack or unrest of some sort going on at the time or the elections that supercedes that economy.

The fact that Bush's popularity has gone down recently doesn't mean anything. The same thing happened in the Gulf War, after which Bush Sr.'s approval rating went through the roof. Bush's popularity will no doubt rebound in the next few weeks, but there's a long way to go until the election.

tewall · #17 03-17-2003, 04:12 PM

I'm confused. The winner of the last presidential election was Bush. So Bush may see that Bush is in trouble and may want to contest this time instead of waiting 4 more years?

adios · #18 03-17-2003, 06:50 PM

Yes I'm jumping the gun.

Dynasty · #19 08-28-2003, 12:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
3/15/03

Dean. Dean. Dean.

Everytime the Democrats have a polical rally like the one they had this weekend in California, it's Howard Dean gets the crowd roaring. If he can raise some decent money, he's going to win the nomination.

About 3 months ago, I thought Dean was destined to get 1-2% in Iowa and New Hampsire. Now, I think he's going to be the real outside threat to win the nomination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dean is having little trouble raising money. Now he's in the lead in New Hampshire and in good shape in Iowa.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/958142.asp

I've made my pick. Dean is going to get the nomination in 2004. He's the Jimmy Carter/Michael Dukakis/Bill Clinton/George W. Bush Governor-that-most-people-have-never-heard-of that's going to win the opposition party's nomination.

Mark Heide · #20 08-28-2003, 03:33 AM

Tom,

I am baised against Bush and would vote for anyone that ran against him. But, I still think it's too early to tell. Furthermore, will we have an independent like Ralph Nader run again? If so, this could change the outcome.

I think out of the democrats Wesley Clark and Howard Dean have the best chance, but it usually depends on how much money is behind them.

Lastly, I think it will hurt Bush's chances if he doesn't wrap up the Iraq and Afganistan issues soon, along with the jobless recovery. The Economy killed his fathers chances last time.

Good Luck

Mark