Loose flop call?

[arcticfire]

[ QUOTE ]
Pacific Poker 0.25/0.50, 9 handed.

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts 1 SB.

UTG checks, 6 calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

This is the sort of hand that gives me trouble preflop, because it looks like two marginal Hold'em hands stuck together, but is probably much weaker. Is it worth a bet in LP or a half bet in the SB?

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 SB, 9 players)

SB checks, BB checks, 3 checks, MP1 bets, 4 calls, Hero...?

In Omaha Hi, this would be a clear call getting 14:1. But I'm unsure how to factor in the chance of splitting with low. Is the following reasoning correct?

A K on the turn gives me the nut straight, which should be good on this rainbow flop. But then any 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, or 8 on the river produces a low hand. That's 55% of the remaining cards, so my 4 K outs have to be discounted by about 50% to 2 outs.

(EDIT: duh, here is one mistake--- with a K I have a 50% chance of winning the whole pot with my straight, so the appropriate discount is 25%, or 3 outs.)

I have two outs to a set of 8's as well. But they produce a low hand, so they count as 1 out. Should they be discounted further due to possible straight redraws? (Although if I hit an 8 I pick up the 9's as possible straight outs as well.)

With 3 outs I need 14:1, which is what I'm getting, so this is still worth seeing the turn, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll go with your 14:1 figures for simplicity.

9 SB pre-flop
5+ more when it gets back to you for the 14 your thinking you want. Consider -

You are basicly drawing to 4 outs. The kings are the only thing that make your hand truly playable. Even if you add the extra 2 8's to give you 6 outs you have to prey they don't fall on the turn. An 8 or K (aside form the only king that dosn't make a backdoor flush possible) on the turn gives you a hand but , then your drawing to a blank on the river.

You won't have the pot odds to call a turn bet if you miss , especially if it falls low because you'll be 2 bet or worse most likly.

So you are chasing 2 cards to the turn , that you have to hope don't actually fall on the turn. Because if they fall on the turn you end up shoveling even more bets into the pot drawing to a blank on the river. Then if they don't fall on the turn you don't have the odds to chase to the river.

I don't think you can make the call soley based on pot odds to catch a card that half the rare times you do your gonna hang yourself with on the river anyway for a ton of bets.

Overall I think this is a -ev decision.

[Yads]

[ QUOTE ]
I have trouble believing it's that low, my calculations in another comment here put the chance of being outdrawn on the river is only about 35%--- IF all the possibilities that beat me are out there.

There are plenty of reasonable holdings that still give me 14:1 odds here, for example up against all three backdoor flush draws and the full house draw:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
pokenum -o8 js td 8h 8d - 2c 3c 4h 6d - qh qd as 2s - kh th ac 4s -- qs 5c ah
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 528 enumerated boards containing Qs 5c Ah
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Js Td 8d 8h 20 67 453 8 0 0 0 0.090
3c 2c 6d 4h 136 147 381 0 380 0 12 0.510
As 2s Qd Qh 80 230 298 0 0 71 6 0.296
4s Ac Kh Th 22 76 444 8 0 71 6 0.103
</pre><hr />

I agree it's marginal, but getting this much action I think my implied odds are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me calculations were assuming hero hit his king on the turn, hero obviously has more equity if he gets to see the river card as well since he may hit his king there (with no flush/full house completing.) Mind you I probably also counted some cards twice and that's why my calculations were so low.

[gergery]

I completely agree with Yads, this is an easy fold.

[ QUOTE ]
my calculations in another comment here put the chance of being outdrawn on the river is only about 35%--- IF all the possibilities that beat me are out there.


[/ QUOTE ]

That’s only getting outdrawn for flushes and boats. There are many redraws that hurt you:
1) Flush/Boat hits 35% of time. Run some math and its something like 85% likely that at least 1 opponent has either 2 pair or a set here. For simplicity say this reduces your equity just 20% (.8) not 35 since they won’t always have it.

2) Low. Will hit 54% of the time and cost you 60% of your equity when it does which equals 32% (.68)reduction in equity. If a low card comes there will always be a low with this many opponents.

3) Another JT. With 8 opponents someone will have JT ~35% of the time and take 50% of your equity, so reduce by another 17.5% (.83)

4) If no JT is out, then one can hit on river J or T so the 66% of the time no one has JT but has Tx or Jx *10% of the card hitting * it costs half the pot 50% = another 3.3% reduction. (.97)

4 outs * .8 * .68 * .83 * .97 = 1.75 effective outs, give or take. With 45 unseen cards, that’s roughly 25:1 odds, which is what Yads came up with minus a discount for the fact that opponents might not always have sets/two pair here.

On top of that, you are not getting 14:1 odds. You have 1.75 effective outs for the pot given the combined turn/river. But you likely must put in 2-3 BBs to get to the showdown whereas some opponents will fold. Your effective odds here are more like 20 to 2 or something depending on how many opponents stay and how many bets they make.

[ QUOTE ]
I agree it's marginal, but getting this much action I think my implied odds are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, your hand will be very obvious if a K comes and you bet, so you will only get action from either another JT that has a flush/low/boat redraw, or potentially from a nutflush with nut low draw who has even equity with you.

Ask yourself what river cards you want to see – the answer is just the 9’s in the deck and even then its got to be a 9 that’s not the same suit as the K. Only 3 or 4 river cards make you happy.

--Greg

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
pokenum -o8 js td 8h 8d - 2c 3c 4h 6d - qh qd as 2s - kh th ac 4s -- qs 5c ah
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 528 enumerated boards containing Qs 5c Ah
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Js Td 8d 8h 20 67 453 8 0 0 0 0.090
3c 2c 6d 4h 136 147 381 0 380 0 12 0.510
As 2s Qd Qh 80 230 298 0 0 71 6 0.296
4s Ac Kh Th 22 76 444 8 0 71 6 0.103
</pre><hr />


[/ QUOTE ]

Those number is for seeing the showdown. If you called right now, everyone else folded and you all checked down then you would have called getting 14:1 odds on your money while a 11:1 favorite (9%) to win money – good deal for you.

Sadly, that’s unlikely to happen. Take one simple scenario. Let’s assume the 234x hand bets, the QQxx raises and 6 people stay for the flop. Someone bets the turn, and 5 call. One river bet and 2 calls including you for an 18.5BB pot. But you put in 3 of those BBs, meaning you put in 16.6% of the money, but only have a 9% equity at showdown – bad deal for you.

Additionally, the twodimes numbers are equity for WINNING THE POT or a portion of the pot. They are NOT numbers for HOW MUCH MONEY YOU WIN, WHEN YOU WIN THE POT, or more precisely, how much profit you make during those times that you win a portion of the pot. Look at the above example: 18.5BB pot, where you put in 3BB. If you split, you get ~9BB minus your 3BB investment for 6BB profit. If you scoop, you get 18bb minus 3 or 15BB. Scooping is not twice as good, it is 2.5x as good as splitting.

So to get your profit from the twodimes numbers, you need to multiply the scoop # by a premium and then add it to the 1-way win #s. And if you look closely, 2 of your opponents scoop numbers are much higher than yours.

Furthermore, plug in some different hands, and your win % can easily drop below 9% to 4% or so with a JT out against you too.

--Greg

[MarkGritter]

Thanks, that was a very clear and thorough explanation.