MNF bet

I didnt call you a liar, I just stated I find it very funny when someone posts picks that stink up the joint and then come back and say they went perfect on a other picks they didnt bother to post. As for answering the rest of your post, Wildbill's previous response perfectly sums up my feelings regarding you and your picks.-Big Al--

You hypothesize betting a middle over 45 and under 47.


Note that 45 and 47 are also wins for you, not pushes as you state.


If you bet $110 to win $100 each way, then you lose the juice ($10) if the game goes under 45 (as it did) or over 47.


If the game lands 46, you win both ways, and get $200.

If the game lands 45 or 47, you win one way and push the other, for a win of $100.


You have a long term winner if 100*p(45) + 200*p(46) + 100*p(47) > 10*p(under 45) + 10*p(over 47).


For example, if you hypothetically assume each total is equally likely and hits with probability "p", then this simplifies to


400*p > 10*(1-3p), or p>1/43=2.3%


I believe this number is closer to 3%, so (with no other information) this middle should be at least a marginally winning play.


FWIW, I played a 2.5 pt middle on this game (46 to 48.5) and lost.


Plays like this won't make you rich, but it is fun when you get lucky and hit.