Is this a bad semibluff?

[Benoit]

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If someone raises all-in, you're going to be calling t605 into a pot of t1030 already.

I can't laydown two overs and the nut flush draw there. Can you?

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At least by leading out you have a better idea of where you stand if reraised. Then yes, if my two overs are clear outs I would call with 1.7 to 1 pot odds, but the problem is if you're against a set, two pair, or top pair w/ ace/king kicker.

[BradleyT]

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Against a set he has 35% chance to win with a flush after the flop, so that means the set has 65% chance to win.

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I hope you don't use that math to make many of your flush draw considerations.

[lastchance]

Against pairs where both your overs are good, you're 53%.
Against KK, you're 45%.
Against A9/K9 you're 45%.
Against AA, you're 35%.
Against two pair, you're 35%.
Against a set, you're 25%.

And remember, t600 into a pot of about t1000.

So, you need about 37% to win. I'm a bit too lazy to do ICM, though I'd say 40% is a ballpark figure.

Any bet pretty much pot-commits you into calling, IMHO. That's why I move in.

[spock86]

Generally speaking strong moves mean weak hands. When you bet about 5x the size of the pot it makes me wonder why you would bet that high if u want me to call.

Also lets say he has trips (really the only hand that will call your overbet). Even if u hit ur flush there are 10 outs for the board to pair on the river and give him a full boat. Smoking u.

[lastchance]

You have ace high. You WANT those guys to fold. This is not a value bet. This is a semibluff. Note the key word "Bluff." If you are only calling with trips here, that is a very, very, very good thing, as you are folding many coinflips, and 2p + AA, which we really want you to fold here.

This isn't about the hands, a set, or two pair, this is about middle pair, Top pair weak kicker, and anything else that you might have which is ahead on the flop that you will fold for all-in raise, but not t150.

[SNOWBALL138]

Do you ever steal blinds? This seems like basically the same thing.

How often am I going to run into a set here? Lets assume that both players hold pocket pairs.

The odds against running into a set are then (7.5/8.5) (7.5/8.5)= 74/89. So, I'm gonna run into at least one set 15 times for ever 74 times. Thats almost 5-1 against.

Which means that five times I win the pot, and sometimes I win it even though I get called.

Thats assuming they both have pocket pairs, which isn't likely.

Listen, even if I never get called by a bad hand here, my play shows a profit.

My play shows more of a profit if we add in the times that I get called by JJ, QQ, TPGK.

Also, this is the 10+1 buy in. It says that at the top of my post. These players aren't very good. They'll call with a lot less than a set.

[lastchance]

I don't think you want to be called by TPGK or JJ or QQ, which are all very easy calls, IMHO. Picking up t200 here would be really nice, and certainly much better than getting called in a race.

So yeah, that's pretty much what this play is. A level 1 blind steal.

[SNOWBALL138]

there's 225 in the pot, which is a lot more than a quarter of my stack. This is hardly a "level 1 blind steal"

What do you think a better line would be? Honestly, I think my play was good, but its hard to say that it was optimal.

Thank you for taking time to think about this.

[lastchance]

By level 1 blind steal, I meant that it was about picking up chips in L1 on a semibluff, which is what most blind steals are.

I think this is the line I would take if this situation occurs. I mean, they both checked to you, they probably both have nothing, you have a ton of outs if they call.

So yeah, I move in here.

[raptor517]

lol, i wonder if anyone has considered checking. i say that only because no one else has.. maybe taking a card off wouldnt be terrible? if you dont want to open yourself up to be raised all in? pushing isnt terrible i dont think, but i really hate to bet 2/3rds or the pot and getting raised all in. i duno, something extra to think about i gues.. 3uo