100/200 Omaha8 hand Bellagio/Sklansky

[Big Dave D]

My view, assuming Ray takes an age to reply, is that DS gets the extra equity for winning uncontested if UTG misses. Thats is he's assuming he can knock out the rest for two bets (playing on his image) and if he and his foe both miss, he scoops. Even very small scoop chances are significant and worth playing for. Of course the probability that he 3/4s if they both make a low are also not too bad. All these add up to a raise being a strong play - assuming good players and table image.

gl

dd
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Poker Blog

[Ray Zee]

yea, dd-- and--

david now gets position the rest of the hand. plus he has another low card and if both are drawing to ace deuce he gets to conterfeit the other guy if an ace or deuce comes. also if the other guy has another low card and ace deuce, it means david probably has the high hand. plus there are lots of small bets in there and to try to suck one or two more out at the expense of losing them is foolish. plus with davids image he has a much better chance of getting it headup than most and with this hand no loss if more come in.
and then some. anyone playing 100/200 automatically thinks this stuff at every betting stage, or they dont stay there for long.

[Beavis68]

Ah, so this is the "buying the button" concept for raising.

Thanks for filling in the reasons Mr. Zee.

[iblucky4u2]

Mr. Zee,

Thanks for the explanation. I do not have such an ego that I can't learn from those who clearly have more knowledge than I do.

[Danielih]

Ray-

Thank you for the advanced explanation of the events in the hand. I think that you think too highly of the O8 players that may even regularly play this game. My questions are
How strong does Davids hand have to be to make such a play, with A2 two high cards and no pairs does he make this play?
I guess the main underlying concept is that once the pot gets big enough you do anything you can to win it? I feel like you are also fairly strongly assuming that the other players are all going to fold, if one of them does not fold you can assume that he has at least a very strong high hand and then David is left with a draw to half or in this case quarter with 7 not being the best counterfeit. I understand the explanation I just disagree that this was clearly the correct play and given that it was the correct play I feel that one can learn a lot from it but it is not necessarily the difference between being a very winning player and a loser. I would be curious to hear Davids explanation although Ray you were very thorough Thank you

[Ray Zee]

dan, since i havent been around there in awhile i dont know the strength of the players that is true. but in general when there are a bunch of bets out there you do want to get it headup with most hands. you get to win it all by accident too many times not to want that. and again getting last bet is way too importqant to miss if possible.
thinking this way may not be the difference between winning and losing but a good kick in the butt can get a person to rearrange his thoughts on what to look at. cant hurt.good luck.

[beerbandit]

do you think that it would be a correct play for the other player to raise and lead out on the turn. or atleast just raise and then chekc/call if a blank comes.

but i guess it is easier to say this knowing what mr. sklansky is holding.

i do or have not palyed omaha8 anywhere near this level so i may be off here.

thanks
beer

[pipes]

Raise vs Call in this situation

I assume using a tight lineup would be the way to go.

[DPCondit]

Would a tight lineup really be the way to go? With one extremely weak player, and two mediocre players, I'm not so sure. 6 people saw the flop? Doesn't sound very tight to me.

How do we do this? We could freeze the button and put hero in the big blind and set the weak player in the small blind to always bet on the flop. That way the weak player is always the first one to bet on on the flop.

However, we don't want to give him A2sQ7, do we? We could just set him to bet the flop with a very large range of hands. I can't really specify how many people are going to see the flop, TTO8 doesn't have such a capability. Do I set hero to always bet the flop, even if Meeky Weako doesn't bet into him? Should I set up Meeky Weako to always bet every hand on the flop? Should I give Meeky Weako A2o, and two random cards?

How do I set up the weak player? In reality, what hands would this guy have bet the flop with? If he doesn't get such a hand, then he may not even bet the flop, then our experiment will have hero betting the flop first one in, and that wouldn't resemble our original experiment at all.

Should we pick 4 or 5 typical hands that the weak player would probably bet with on the flop, and give him that?

I have to figure exactly what I am modeling before I can model it, and I have to work within the constraints of the program.

If it gets really complicated, it may not be worth the hassle. Would you cold call a raise on that flop with a naked A2 if Sklansky raised? You would probably have to figure he also has A2 and some kind of high hand. I don't see why a naked low would call here.

By raising he rates to get heads-up with the weak player, and locks the dead money into the pot, he probably (but not in this case) also has a much better hand than the weak player, but even if he has a slightly worse hand, he is still improving his chance of winning. However, even if I just give Meeky Weako the A2sQ7 every hand, you still make money raising (if your opponents will fold a dry A2 to your raise) instead of calling (because of the dead money in the pot), and you have to figure the whole range of hands this joker might bet with.

Anyways, maybe I'll mess with it, if we can do it without making it too complicated, but I can't spend too much time on it. I have to bone up for a NLHE tourney and a 7 stud tourney in Vegas next week (BARGE).

Don

[pipes]

Hey DP,

yeah it does sound a little complicated...tough to model

To simplify, one could maybe just freeze the button and have just two players in the hand to try and test whether
or not headsup is a +EV.

Sklansky would have his hand, but the other guy would have like 5 different hands. His actual hand and maybe 4 others that he might be opening the betting with. Maybe KK23, AK25 or things of that nature.

But since it is probably hard to model....maybe gearing up for the tourneys is a better endeavor lol Good luck!