Bubble Situation

[Gypsy Cabs]

[ QUOTE ]
If you fold here your equity is ~25% of the pool. If you call and lose your equity is almost 0%. If you call and win your equity is ~40%. You have to beat him 60% of the time for this to be a breakeven call. You have to beat him more than 60% to make money on this call.

So, do you think this player would play a range of cards this way that you could beat 60% of the time with AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain how you got those numbers? I'm getting something a bit different.

[Moonsugar]

Will write this out in text as many people, myself included, have a hard time following unfamiliar equations.

There are 3 possible outcomes (I ignore ties in this case as the blinds are quite small relative to stack sizes):

1) Hero folds
2) Hero calls and loses.
3) Hero calls and wins.

Plug the resulting final chipcounts into a ICM calculator.

To find the breakeven we have to have ICM1 = weighted average of ICM2 & ICM3. The weight is the Hero's win % for ICM3 and Hero's loss % for ICM2 (also, 1-win%). So we can solve for the win% needed to make ICM1 = weighted average of ICM2 & ICM3.