Newcomb's Paradox

MortalWombatDotCom · #5 12-16-2004, 08:18 PM

assuming "reliable" is used here to mean "100% accurate", i agree. in this case, the condition of the problem wherein the reliable predictor "knew you would be told that" has no bearing on the outcome.

if "reliable" might mean something else, like having a certain large probability p of predicting how you will behave given an accurate model of the set of information you will have at the time you make your decision, then the answer is, it depends on the actual value of p, and also, the "knew you would be told that" clause becomes important again.

so, before i vote, please define "reliable predictor" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

as an aside, i fail to see a paradox in either case.

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