3/6 top set, am I still raising?

[beernutz]

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SB bets, Hero?

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Burdz - Raise. There's too much already in the pot to do anything else. Your object is to knock out anyone with a weak straight or weak straight draw. A raise from you at least decreases the favorable odds anybody has to draw here. if your raise fails to knock out CO or Button, and if SB re-raises, then just call the re-raise.

Buzz

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I don't disagree with the raise here even though the top set may in fact be the one now on a draw. What do you do if for example you raise, UTG 3 bets, and SB caps? Call 2 here or [yuk], fold?

[chaos]

You would call 2 more. It isn't even close.

There were already 12 BB in the pot before the turn. If it is capped three handed, it will cost you 2 to win 22. You have 10 outs to fill up or make quads and there are 44 unseen cards. So you are getting 11 to 1 on a 3.4 to 1 draw.

[beernutz]

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You would call 2 more. It isn't even close.

There were already 12 BB in the pot before the turn. If it is capped three handed, it will cost you 2 to win 22. You have 10 outs to fill up or make quads and there are 44 unseen cards. So you are getting 11 to 1 on a 3.4 to 1 draw.

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Chaos, first thanks for responding. Second, I'm not sure the scenario where the trip jacks win 22 for an investment of 2 is likely to occur since that hand is already counterfeited for low. It is unlikely, IMO, for that hand to scoop both halves at this point given the fact that the turn is being capped. Won't it cost that hand 2 to win 11 (5.5:1)? The draw still appears to be +EV but not quite as good as previously reported.

[Buzz]

Hi Beernutz - Nice picture.

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even though the top set may in fact be the one now on a draw.

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Hero is indeed on a draw, and only playing for half the pot.

Hero does not have favorable odds to initiate fresh money into the pot. Hero's only getting a one-to-one pay off on fresh money.

But even though two different straights are already possible, Hero would greatly increase his chances to win half the pot by knocking out an opponent.

Thus Hero's raise wouldn't be a value bet. Hero's raise would purely be an attempt to intimidate an opponent.

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What do you do if for example you raise, UTG 3 bets, and SB caps?

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You call the double bet. You have favorable odds to call the double bet.

If the betting gets capped behind you, the raise will have been a failure, but if hero just called in the first place, Hero would have been facing a double bet anyway. (Indeed it's more likely there will be a double raise behind Hero if Hero just calls).

If Hero raised and the betting was capped behind him, Hero would be getting something in the neighborhood of seven to one half-pot odds to call the cap. Since the odds against the board pairing on the river, from Hero's vantage point, are about four to one (against), Hero would clearly have favorable odds to call the double re-raise - and that's not even figuring Hero's implied half-pot odds.

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What do you do if for example you raise, UTG 3 bets, and SB caps? Call 2 here or [yuk], fold?

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You'd call. Because of the size of the pot, you'd have favorable odds to call. (way, way, way more favorable than you'd need).

Buzz