Super/System Stud section and Flush draws

[Duke]

In the stud section, Chip (or Danny, who (at least) once said casually that he had written for Chip) states that on 5th street with a 4 flush you're a 1.86:1 dog to make your hand.

Well, yeah that's the hold'em odds given the unknown cards for that game, but given that you must see more cards which are out of the equation now in stud, I assert that this will never, ever, be exactly true.

Yes, over time it will surely be the case since discounting the upcards will yield the same results over time, but on a given hand it can't possibly be true. You could also play AA in Hold'em every hand to the river because they're best, but that's not a good move in every situation either.

Mason has spoken of hold'em odds not necessarily being as important as one may think, but a general idea is surely important, and in stud dead cards make probabilities swing significantly.

Yeah it's not a 2+2 book, but I figure most of you have read this book as well. I read the Stud hi/lo section after I had been playing that game successfully for a few months, and I agree with David's section on the whole. Of course, adjusting certain parts to account for the fact that it's now played 8 or better and not just hi/lo (in every casino I have ever seen it spread in). There, I mentioned David, so now it's related to 2+2. Still haven't gotten around to reading Ray's book.

So... what's the point? Oh yeah, figure odds for completing stud hands out on the fly, and don't try to memorize them. Unless you're in my game, then no matter how many dead spades there are, you're only a 1.86:1 dog to complete.

~D