Question for All?

[adios]

If you pick a stock and it goes up say 20% in a month and reaches your target price. Have you been lucky or good or both? I guess my question is how much does luck play in making money in the financial markets especially if your holding periods tend to be very short i.e. say 3 months or less? I mean in poker you can play well and lose for short periods of time or play poorly and win for short periods of time (actually the periods can be longer than most people suspect depending on your skill level etc.) just due to variance. How much of a role does variance play in trading and/or investing in the markets especially when holding periods are short?