It's a slow night, so I think I'll start a thread

deathpotato · #1 06-05-2005, 04:53 AM

The Bubble "Fu*ck You!" Call

So, it's the bubble in a $215, it's level 7, and you're the big stack with 6000 chips. What's better, there's a shortie sitting around at 500 chips, i.e. forced all-in in his next BB, and two middle stacks at 2000 and 1500 apiece. Let's say that the middle stacks are solid players (and that they regard you as such - you play with them frequently), and that the shortie is likely to wait to be forced all-in in his BB when the time comes, hoping for someone to do something stupid. You've been stealing the blinds for a while and have built your lead a lot, but the shorter middle stack is getting fairly desperate.

Now, here's a hand, halfway into level 7. You are in the BB with T8o, UTG with 2000 folds, short stuff folds on the button and the 1500 stack pushes into you from the SB. Given a fairly loose calling range for you of 22+, A2+, K9o+, K7s+, QTs+, JTs, SB needs to win about 43% of the time when called for this to be a significantly (>.5%) +$EV move compared to folding. He can push with 33+, A2o+, KTs+, KJo+, and gain about .5% of the prize pool. However, with the shortstack forced all-in in a few hands, SB will likely be slightly tighter than this. For the sake of argument, let's assign him a much tighter range of 44+, A9o+, A7s+, KJs+, KQo.

To recap:

Stacks:
Blinds 200/400
BB (Hero) 6000 with T8o .... Current equity: $811.8
SB 1500 ............W........... Current equity: $467.4
Button 500 ...................... Current equity: $181.6
UTG 2000 ........................ Current equity: $539.4

Action: Fold, Fold, All-in (1500) with a range of 44+, A9o+, A7s+, KJs+, KQo

Almost everyone, when presented with this situation, would mumble under their breath something about the SB being lucky they didn't have a decent hand while they fold their slightly sub-average T8o. But do we, the noble BB, have to stand for this abuse? We're the big stack, that puny 1500 doesn't scare us! How much does it really hurt us to call? And won't this SB (not to mention shortie and UTG, if they notice - and they almost always will) be far less likely to push in this sort of situation in the future if they see you make this call?

If you fold this hand, ICM says you lose about $23.4. What happens if you call?

T8o wins approximately 33.3% of the time against 44+, A9o+, A7s+, KJs+, KQo.
The 33.3% of the time that you win you will have a commanding lead of 7500 going into the money, and equity in the prize pool equal to about $895.4. The 66.7% of the time that you lose you will still have the chip lead with 4500 and immediate equity of $721.2, and you will also be able to steal more should the shortstack survive his blinds. So by calling you lose:

.333*895.4 + .667*721.2 = 779.2
Recall that your equity at the start of the hand was 811.8.
811.8-779.2 = $32.6
Calling loses $32.6, but compared to folding you only lose 32.6 - 23.4 = $9.2! Considering how strange it seems, calling is really not much worse than folding.

Now, what kind of effect does this call have on SB's equity? 66.7% of the time he will have 3000 and $615.6 of equity, and 33.3% of the time he will bust (and be really pissed off).

.667*615.6 = 410.6
Recall that SB's equity at the start of the hand was $467.4
467.4 - 410.6 = 56.8
This call loses the SB $56.8 on average, but compared to folding he loses 56.8 - 27.8 = $29.

Calling with T8o hurts SB more than three times as much as it hurts you!

I think that making this call against a good player at an observant table sends a very strong message. You effectively give SB a $30 kick in the ass and distribute about $90 of EV to UTG and the short stack, while costing yourself about $9. Next time you find yourself in a similar situation with any of these players they are likely to push into you even more cautiously, and if they fold their KJs even once you more than make up for this $9 loss.

My apologies if this concept lies under the definition of a spite call and I've wasted your time, but I thought this was perhaps a more extreme version of the concept, and better for the caller.

As a side note, making this play all but requires you to type something obscene and drunken into the chat box beforehand. At any rate, next time you encounter this situation, don't resentfully click that fold button! Flip your monitor off, type "GAMBOOOOOL!" and give that SB the spanking he deserves.