Why Daniel May Have Been a Big Favorite.

[David Sklansky]

I barely know Mimi so this is just speculation. But what I wanted to point out is that those who thought that Mimi should beat Daniel because of her success in big holdem games may have been missing something. And I do NOT mean that she isn't used to shorthanded or tough competition. But if she hasn't played much headsup there is one specific thing she isn't used to. Namely the small blind on the button.

Even if she has lots of three handed experience it doesn't matter much because of this difference. If the button folds and she is the small blind it is correct to fold a lot more hands than it would be if you had position. A lot more. As far as raising on the button, in a three handed game, you are risking four to win three and have two opponents to contend with. Head up you are risking three to win three and are against only one opponent.

Carrying this further we see that the big blind in a three handed game can assume a bit more of a hand from the button than heads up. This allows more folds on the flop after calling a raise. In fact it allows you to avoid flops where you have absolutely nothing. But you can't do that playing headup against a headup expert. If the button has two blank cards and always raises preflop and bets the flop he will break about even against a big blind who always need something to continue on.

Ironically there is a lot of math in headup, just as in full games. There is less math in shorthanded. But in headup there are so many little pots where both players have nothing and a bluffer is getting 4-1 or so a full analysis of those situations is needed to handle them right. If Mimi didn't do this analysis but merely tried to transfer her skills as a shorthanded player to this match she was in trouble. (Again I know little about her. Maybe she has played a lot of head up. Maybe she has done extensive analysis.) Because Daniel, you can be sure, has thought a lot along these lines. He like to downplay math in his writings but I have talked to him and know better. He also is now associated with The University of Alberta's excellent head up holdem computer program so who knows how much he has learned from that.