Daliman throws his hat in with the conspiracy theorists.

[Daliman]

Ok, I know I was involved in the thread where I said I don't think colluding in SNG's is highly +EV, but I think there is a chance I may have had a bit of first-hand knowledge of it in a Step 5 I played last night. When the game got down to 5 handed, a couple of odd plays happened; the two loosest calling players in the game who had solid chipstacks folded for VERY good odds in the blinds without a second's thought to the same shorstacked player. Now, normally, I don't think much of that, but these guys call most anything half-reasonable WITHOUT odds or a stack. This was my final Step 5 of the night, and needless to say, i went out 5th shortly thereafter.

Anyways, I look at the Poker prophecy #'s of each player(i know, nowhere NEAR the gospel, but a decent guide), who my notes say are all bad, and I'll be damned if all 3 of them don't have higher #'s in Step 5's. Now, I ain't saying it's impossible, but let's just say these #'s are right for the sake of argument. What do you think the chances are that ANY player has a better cash % in step 5's than any other tourney? Considering I am currently at about 47% on prophecy and only cashing 17% in Step 5's and in only 2 of my last 19 have I come in top 4, i'd say that portends to unlikely. But of course, prophecy has its flaws, short run and all, etc etc. All told, it raises questions for me even more.

I'm not sayin'..I'm jes sayin'.....

I won't give their names, just the HH's and their Pokerprophecy ratings.

***** Hand History for Game xxxxxxxxx*****
300/600 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament xxxxxxxx) - Sat Mar 26 02:12:15 EST 2005
Table Step 5 983423 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Some Guy (2315)
Seat 2: Player 2 (3085)
Seat 3: Player 3(2640)
Seat 4: Player 1 (850)
Seat 6: surrealpoker (1110)
Some guy posts small blind (150)
sPlayer 2 posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to surrealpoker [ Ad, 6s ]
Player 3folds.
PacmanFL: 44% in the $1000's pretty damn impressive too
Player 1 raises (850) to 850
Player 1 is all-In.
surrealpoker folds.
Some guy folds.
Player 2 folds.
Creating Main Pot with $1300 with Player 1
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1300
Some guy balance 2165, lost 150 (folded)
Player 2 balance 2785, lost 300 (folded)
Player 3 balance 2640, didn't bet (folded)
Player 1 balance 1300, bet 850, collected 1300, net +450
surrealpoker balance 1110, didn't bet (folded)

***** Hand History for Game xxxxxxxxx *****
300/600 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament xxxxxx) - Sat Mar 26 02:12:36 EST 2005
Table Step 5 983423 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Some guy (2165)
Seat 2: Player 2 (2785)
Seat 3: Player 3 (2640)
Seat 4: Player 1(1300)
Seat 6: surrealpoker (1110)
Player 2 posts small blind (150)
Player 3 posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to surrealpoker [ 2s, 5s ]
surrealpoker: yep, cuz that's only 1-3

Player 1 raises (1300) to 1300
Player 1 is all-In.
surrealpoker folds.
Some guy folds.
Player 2 folds.
Player 3 folds.
Creating Main Pot with $1750 with Player 1
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1750
some guy balance 2165, didn't bet (folded)
Player 2 balance 2635, lost 150 (folded)
Player 3 balance 2340, lost 300 (folded)
Player 1 balance 1750, bet 1300, collected 1750, net +450
surrealpoker balance 1110, didn't bet (folded)


Player 1
Games played 207
Wins 84 (40.58%)
Losses 123 (59.42%)
Average Buy-In $661.45
Players with better winning percentage 46535
Players with worse winning percentage 199341
$200 Table: 25 wins / 51 losses / 32.89% wins
$50 Table: 0 wins / 2 losses / 0% wins
$100 Table: 3 wins / 3 losses / 50% wins
$1000 Table: 54 wins / 66 losses / 45% wins
$500 Table: 2 wins / 0 losses / 100% wins
$20 Table: 0 wins / 1 losses / 0% wins

Player 2
Games played 333
Wins 101 (30.33%)
Losses 232 (69.67%)
Average Buy-In $443.65
Players with better winning percentage 100663
Players with worse winning percentage 145233
$30 Table: 0 wins / 2 losses / 0% wins
$100 Table: 12 wins / 34 losses / 26.09% wins
$1000 Table: 36 wins / 73 losses / 33.03% wins
$200 Table: 52 wins / 117 losses / 30.77% wins
$20 Table: 0 wins / 1 losses / 0% wins
$50 Table: 1 wins / 4 losses / 20% wins
$5 Table: 0 wins / 1 losses / 0% wins

Player 3
Games played 168
Wins 55 (32.74%)
Losses 113 (67.26%)
Average Buy-In $302.77
Players with better winning percentage 88940
Players with worse winning percentage 156963
$200 Table: 27 wins / 75 losses / 26.47% wins
$100 Table: 3 wins / 4 losses / 42.86% wins
$30 Table: 2 wins / 2 losses / 50% wins
$10 Table: 2 wins / 2 losses / 50% wins
$20 Table: 5 wins / 7 losses / 41.67% wins
$50 Table: 5 wins / 2 losses / 71.43% wins
$11 Table: 0 wins / 1 losses / 0% wins
$1000 Table: 10 wins / 18 losses / 35.71% wins
$5 Table: 0 wins / 1 losses / 0% wins
$500 Table: 1 wins / 1 losses / 50% wins


These are their up-to-the-minute Pokerprophecy stats, for what they are worth, undoctored.

Notice in all 3 cases, Step 5's are their highest cash rate, sometimes BY FAR, than any other limit they have more then 12 games in. Also, remember that the cash % for step 5 are top 3 spots only, therefore if these #'s were accurate, they would all be highly likely to be making a LOT of $$$ in these.

My notes on these players have them all as bad players, but player 1 may have improved to a marginal winner, but players 2 and 3 are just terrible and bad respectively.

In the interest of fairness and showing off, here are MY pokerprohecy stats... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Player surrealpoker
Games played 184
Wins 85 (46.2%)
Losses 99 (53.8%)
Average Buy-In $188.21
Players with better winning percentage 37824
Players with worse winning percentage 208185
$100 Table: 24 wins / 26 losses / 48% wins
$200 Table: 51 wins / 51 losses / 50% wins
$10 Table: 8 wins / 15 losses / 34.78% wins
$1000 Table: 2 wins / 7 losses / 22.22% wins