Analysis of Streaks (I):Levels 1-3 (long)

[Slim Pickens]

Background

My general strategy in the early levels is to play few hands, just AA, KK, QQ, and AK always, AQ-AT, JJ, TT in position as appropriate, limp lower pocket pairs if I think I won’t be raised behind and fold if no set, occasionally limp a worse ace in position.

VPIP%(Overall/Phase One/Phase Two): 14.0, 15.8, 12.2
pre-flop raise %: 6.1, 6.2, 5.9
went to showdown when seeing flop: 28.6, 28.4, 28.8
won t$ in those showdowns: 51.9, 52.9, 50.8
Ok, the only thing I get out of this is that it’s basically 50/50 as to whether or not I’ll win the showdown if I see the flop. Since an average of well greater than two see each flop, I think this is fine. It indicates neither a lack of selectivity on my part or a disproportionate number of suckouts against me. I stopped limping bad aces altogether, which I think makes the difference in VPIP.

Levels 1-3. How often do I survive?
Phase One: 65/90=72%
Phase Two: 66/90=73%
Nothing to see here folks, unless anybody thinks those numbers are too low or high. Is anybody else significantly different than about 3 out of 4?

If I survive, how many chips do I have?
Phase One median chipstack: 1075
Phase Two median chipstack: 935
I hope the extra 140 chips don’t make a difference. I feel it shouldn’t matter as long as I play well later on.

How often am I seeing/winning showdowns where I’m within 60/40 either way?
Phase One: Three wins in four tries.
Phase Two : Three wins in five tries.
Conclusion: meh.

How often am I seeing showdowns where all the chips went in with someone a huge (>80%) favorite, and how often was I the dominating favorite?
sucked out on someone: 8, 2, 6
suckout against me: 14, 7, 7

How are the cards treating me?
The only notable difference I can identify is a dearth of pocket aces in Phase Two, only 5 of them where I expect 10 or 11, but I can’t say that ought to matter. My win rate when dealt AA, KK, and QQ is over 80%.

Overall my play looks fine, and I was not the victim of any vicious cold streak. This was a nice little exercise, but the difference lies elsewhere. Up next, Level 4 until it's 4-handed.