Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #1  
Old 03-03-2005, 04:37 PM
jubeirm jubeirm is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 12
Default Computing weighted standard deviation for $/hr

I've been keeping records of my play for a while and computing a "simple" (see below) standard deviation (StdDev). I have also been downloading my playing history and realize that through this I can probably get some much better information about my volatility. What is the difference between the "simple", weighted, and theoretical limit StdDev that I discuss below? What is "best" in a theoretical sense and what is best for our purposes as poker players? Why?

First lets assume I have the following 5 sessions in my logs. Notice that I have most sessions between 1-2 hours and 2 sessions on the extremes (30 min and 5 hours).

Session 1: +30$ for 1:00 hr = +30.00 $/hr
Session 2: -23$ for 1:30 hr = -15.33 $/hr
Session 3: +12$ for 5:00 hr = + 2.50 $/hr
Session 4: +15$ for 2:15 hr = + 6.67 $/hr
Session 5: -17$ for 0:30 hr = -34.00 $/hr

Now what I am calling a "simple" StdDev is the usual sum of squared differences between the average and each observation. For example, for the above sessions StdDev = 24.08 $/hr

A weighted StdDev would give more weight to a longer session (e.g. Session 3) and less weight to a short session (e.g. Session 5). So for the above the average is -2.03 $/hr and the weighted StdDev

Var = Sum{i=1 to 5} [w_i * (x_i - xavg)^2] / (n-1) =
[1*(30 + 2.03)^2 + 1.5*(-25.33 + 2.03) + 5*(2.50 + 2.03)
+ 2.25*(6.67 + 2.03) + 0.5*(-34.00 + 2.03)^2] / 4 = 518.12

StdDev = sqrt(Var) = 22.76

Lastly, one could take this as far as physically possible by considering each win/loss and the time between them. For example, if I pull down a big pot ($60) after 5 minutes, fold for 20 minutes, and then lose a large pot ($47) I will have two observations and weights:

w1 = 5/60, ob1 = 60/w1 = 720
w2 = 20/60, ob2 = -47/w2 = -141

Then I can compute a weighted StdDev over all my observations (i.e. wins and losses) for all sessions. The trouble I am having is how do I interpret the results. I'm not sure what the difference between the three is and how to determine which result I should prefer. Any ideas?

Note: In all the above I used the formula for Sample StdDev. Also, all the above can just as easily be applied to BB/hr, $/100, BB/100, etc.
Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:00 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.