Thin value on river 3-bet?

[beta1607]

Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (1.90 SB)

Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls

5th Street - (2.45 BB)

Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls

6th Street - (5.45 BB)

Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

River - (8.45 BB)

Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___raises
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___folds

Total pot: (14.45 BB)


I have been on a down swing partially due to the fact I am a tilt monkey but also because I dont extract enough value with my hands so I have trying to be more agressive. Is this river a good spot for a 3-bet? How about taking the lead when I paired which I think allowed me to get raised on 7th? FWIW I wasnt going to put any more money in the pot after 6th unless I caught a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] a 2 or made K's up

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
How about taking the lead when I paired

[/ QUOTE ]


Actually you took the lead before you paired, on 5th. I think I just check-call this through. I can’t imagine you’re a favourite on 6th, so a free card would be great.
There are only two hands he can have you can beat on the river – trips or the spade flush. I dunno… if this guy has brains he’ll be wary of raising with either of those hands. You’re bet on could mean 8s and 2s, after all, so you could be full. I think I don’t 3-bet, unless he’s a monkey.

[bigredlemon]

Maybe i'm a maniac but I'd cap the river every time... well... 3bet and call a cap.

He's probably putting me on either a flush, trips, or big two pair. If I'm villain and I make a flush, i'm going to be raising. If it's a flush Q or higher, i'm capping for sure.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
He's probably putting me on either a flush, trips , or big two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]


The only way Beta can have trips is if he bet on 5th with just deuces

[bigredlemon]

I run some two dimes and found that if Beta had two pair vs. villain's JJ and villain2's 99, beta would have .300 equity 3 way and .388 equity HU, so his move would have been very negative ev. I guess u can replace trips with a boat.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
I run some two dimes and found that if Beta had two pair vs. villain's JJ and villain2's 99, beta would have .300 equity 3 way and .388 equity HU, so his move would have been very negative ev. I guess u can replace trips with a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]


Sorry, maybe I’m dumb, but i don’t get it.
JJ? 99? Which move are you talking about? Equity at which point? What does equity have to do with river play?

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[beta1607]

This was one of my first hands at the table so no reads.

I would have been hesitant to 3-bet if he had a pair showing, but for him to have me beat on the river his hand would have to have been completely hidden which seemed unlikely to me.

[bigredlemon]

And given villain's betting pattern, I'd strongly suspect he's on a straight draw.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
And given villain's betting pattern, I'd strongly suspect he's on a straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad… I had completely forgotten about straights… uh.
Why am I so dumb? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
You’re right. He could easily have a straight. So a three-bet is better than I thought.

I need to get some sleep.

[Bartholow]

I don't mean to nitpick, but would raising with the spade flush be bad at all? I think I might have in villain's shoes, depending on what cards make my flush.