This is not a bad beat rant

Floyd Moseby · #1 05-21-2005, 02:30 PM

Despite what it may appear to be, this post is not a bad beat request for sympathy. I do fully understand the possibility for and natural occurrences of large downswings, and the best players in the world fall victim to them from time to time. I am in one right now (hopefully towards the tail end of it), and have some questions about how it should affect my play moving forward.

After some recent and particularly grueling sessions, I put forth the effort of actually crunching the PT data and not just using it to get artificial reads on my opponents. I found and have corrected a few leaks, but for the most part my plays were fine and reasonable.

What I've been seeing a lot lately is that people are really playing back at me very aggressively in all sorts of situations, and I'm finding more and more reasons to fold my made (non-nut) hands. Against tighter opponents I naturally respect raises more, but this is even coming against loose players. I desperately want to avoid going weak-tight despite my losses. I'm in one of those stretches where I make TPTK on the flop (AQs for example), lead out the flop and turn with 1 or 2 callers, and get reraised on the turn when a guy makes 2 small pair. No scare cards are involved, and I don't see it coming. I have been reraising on many occasions where a PF limper reraises me on the turn and no overcards to my big pair hit, and it has been costing me (sets, 2 small pair, etc). Do I just ride it out, or am I right to start respecting all the loose reraisers unless I have the nuts? I hate to be a call-down Sally. I see people with total aggression factors of 3 and 4 with nice win rates, and I can't seem to raise anything without getting reraised vs improbable hands. Right now I'm good at building nice pots for other people to draw on, but I can't see letting people draw for free by checking in EP or MP. You see where I'm getting?

Most of my big money losing hands appear to be where I've got a made hand and just get caught from behind, but the size of the pots I've been involved with probably gave them the green light. I try to stay out of small pots when I can help it unless I'm stealing under good conditions.

I don't want a pep talk (I can get those if I need them), but I guess I just want tips on when to let go or call down in a big pot. It seems stupid just typing that question, but I'm losing a lot of money on those.

daveymck · #2 05-21-2005, 02:38 PM

POst hands where you think you went wrong (or even where you dont think you did).

When to let go or carry on is a complex question dependant on pot size, outs the opp etc etc, hell if it were easy noone would need ot post any hands.

Floyd Moseby · #3 05-21-2005, 03:08 PM

Ok here's a few:

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.75 BB

-----------------------------------------------------------
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero calls (I know I should have raised, dunno why I didn't), 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

------------------------------------------------------------
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls $2.70 (All-In), MP2 calls, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 folds, SB caps, Hero calls.

River: (15.67 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.67 BB

------------------------------------------------------------
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

River: (8.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

That's a few. I also realized that I was losing to a lot of rivered and runner-runner flushes, but I didn't see the point of posting those.

Haupt_234 · #4 05-21-2005, 03:17 PM

Hand 1: Fine.

Hand 2: Fine, you already stated you should have raised preflop.

Hand 3: I think I actually slow down on the turn to the checkraise of the SB. He payed half a bet PF to complete and then got sucked in for another, so he's telling you he hit this raggish board by the checkraise. Don't pay him off more than you have to.

Hand 4: Without a read on UTG, i'm folding this PF. Given that you decided to try and isolate him with a raise, I think you played it fine until the turn. I would flat call the turn/river here. But, if UTG was a overly aggro LAG, then I like your line.

Hope some of these comments helped.

Haupt_234

Scott_Baio · #5 05-21-2005, 02:47 PM

The best thing to do when on a long losing streak is to move down in limits for a little while. You'll feel more comfortable with the smaller swings and be more able to concentrate on making correct plays, rather than winning or losing money.

It could just be bad cards, but I've found long downswings tend to start with bad cards and they keep going because of a combination of bad cards and weak plays.

Nick Royale · #6 05-21-2005, 03:00 PM

Much of the aggression factor comes from being able to make slim value bets, not necessairly from re-raising raises. It sounds to me you're not quite comfortable playing the limit you play.

Floyd Moseby · #7 05-21-2005, 03:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Much of the aggression factor comes from being able to make slim value bets, not necessairly from re-raising raises. It sounds to me you're not quite comfortable playing the limit you play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Duly noted, but I am completely comfortable and a winning player at this limit for nearly 15,000 hands. I understand the concept of value betting and I think I am able to do so when the pot is right and I have an appropriate number of outs, regardless of whether my hand is made yet or not. I do consider implied odds as well. I think I may be incorrectly associating ranges of hands to opponents or just plain making bad reads based on the betting and data accumulated. That said, I'm the OP here asking for mercy and help, so maybe I'm wrong. For what it's worth, my total aggression factor w/o PF #'s is right around 1.90, and with PF #'s it's at about 1.20.

Nick Royale · #8 05-21-2005, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
For what it's worth, my total aggression factor w/o PF #'s is right around 1.90, and with PF #'s it's at about 1.20.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then I believe it's psycholigical issue (unless you totally misplace your aggression which i believe not). Everybody experience bad beats when being aggressive and it feels even worse when you're in a downswing. Just keep betting dude!

chesspain · #9 05-21-2005, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...I am completely comfortable and a winning player at this limit for nearly 15,000 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I guess I'm confused as to the reasons for your initial post.

thejameser · #10 05-21-2005, 04:07 PM

Losing, like winning is part of poker. Inherently each hand has a value. This value also fluctuates as to your opponents, the board, game texture, etc. You need to learn to evaluate what your hand is worth given your opponent, the likelihood that you are beat, the likelihood you can catch up and if it is warranted by the pot. You are playing in small stakes hold em which means, while there is alot of money to make because of the weak players, there is also a degree of unknown because of the insane hand ranges that they will play. In the LONG RUN if you keep playing hands that put you in a better position to win, and then more importantly, master navigating with them postflop, you will be a winner. I don't know what your sample size is but I bet it is less than what many people on this site play in a few days. Buck up and make the right decisions, that is the key. If you do that it will come. Don't make weak/tight decisions(which it sounds to me like you are beginning to lean towards) because you think you are beat every time you have a hand. Don't go crazy raising/reraising on the big streets with only top pair unless the TEXTURE of the game warrants it. There is no simple answer as this is the nature of the game. As long periods of lulls will come, so will days when every hand holds up. Patience and educated persistance will pay off. No, this is not necessarily a bad beat rant, but is a little whiny [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].