2 bets to me on the turn with top pair.

deepsquat · #1 03-30-2005, 02:16 AM

What do you think about folding this turn? No reads but my feeling is that perhaps villain tried to get tricky with a 7

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG raises, Hero folds, SB calls.

River: (11 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

NAU_Player · #2 03-30-2005, 02:26 AM

My play is 90% read specific. If I think UTG is tight and is raising with a Q then i usually call the turn hoping the SB comes along for the ride. If I think he's tricky and somewhat loose I usually fold.

Against random opponents, I'd probably fold and wait for another hand to take their money.

Kevin K. · #3 03-30-2005, 03:14 AM

Without reads, the fold on the turn seems fine.
Maybe I'm wrong but the last thing I would do on the flop is call. Raise or fold depending on the read on the SB.

Aaron W. · #4 03-30-2005, 03:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm wrong but the last thing I would do on the flop is call. Raise or fold depending on the read on the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have three questions:

1) What's the value of raising the flop when you're closing the action?
2) What's the value of folding the flop when you're closing the action?
3) What's the value of calling the flop when you're closing the action?

Let's try to clear up that "maybe"...

scotty34 · #5 03-30-2005, 03:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm wrong but the last thing I would do on the flop is call. Raise or fold depending on the read on the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have three questions:

1) What's the value of raising the flop when you're closing the action?
2) What's the value of folding the flop when you're closing the action?
3) What's the value of calling the flop when you're closing the action?

Let's try to clear up that "maybe"...

[/ QUOTE ]

1)Possible free river
2)If you are not getting odds to call on (at best) 6 outs, fold
3)If you are getting odds to call on 6 outs, then call (I don't really like it though)

ArturiusX · #6 03-30-2005, 05:13 AM

Those outs need to be discounted because you could be dominated, and someone could have a 7, in which case they're not hand winning outs.

Aaron W. · #7 03-30-2005, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I have three questions:

1) What's the value of raising the flop when you're closing the action?
2) What's the value of folding the flop when you're closing the action?
3) What's the value of calling the flop when you're closing the action?

[/ QUOTE ]

1)Possible free river
2)If you are not getting odds to call on (at best) 6 outs, fold
3)If you are getting odds to call on 6 outs, then call (I don't really like it though)

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't quite answer the questions the way I was expecting. It wasn't meant to be an abstract thing, but a very concerte look at this hand and the situation that's presented.

The free card play alone is *NOT* enough to justify raising. In fact, you generally should avoid a free card play with a weak draw. It's too expensive when it fails. The free card play is not too likely to work because you have a larger field.

Raising opens yourself up to a 3-bet, which is bad because you're compelled to see the turn by then due to the pot size being quite large.

The only other reason to raise when closing the action is that you have a strong hand or strong draw that you want to raise for value. This hand clearly does not satisfy that condition.

Raising is the worst of the three options.

Folding and calling are close together, with folding being slightly better. You don't have 6 full outs, but it's probably closer to 3 because of all the callers. You have almost the right odds to make a call for 3 outs, but you've got reverse implied odds working against you (you don't want action if you hit your hand because it probably means you're beat). These two things make folding look better than calling.

But calling here would be a "loose flop call", and not a complete disaster.

You've got to be careful with the "raise-or-fold" line, because there are lots of places it simply doesn't apply, and this is one of them.

Kevin K. · #8 03-30-2005, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The free card play alone is *NOT* enough to justify raising. In fact, you generally should avoid a free card play with a weak draw. It's too expensive when it fails. The free card play is not too likely to work because you have a larger field.

Raising opens yourself up to a 3-bet, which is bad because you're compelled to see the turn by then due to the pot size being quite large.

The only other reason to raise when closing the action is that you have a strong hand or strong draw that you want to raise for value. This hand clearly does not satisfy that condition.

Raising is the worst of the three options.

Folding and calling are close together, with folding being slightly better. You don't have 6 full outs, but it's probably closer to 3 because of all the callers. You have almost the right odds to make a call for 3 outs, but you've got reverse implied odds working against you (you don't want action if you hit your hand because it probably means you're beat). These two things make folding look better than calling.

But calling here would be a "loose flop call", and not a complete disaster.

You've got to be careful with the "raise-or-fold" line, because there are lots of places it simply doesn't apply, and this is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I shouldn't have said raise or fold. I was going back and forth between here and playing and didn't take the time to elaborate. I read through the OP's post quickly and that was my initial reaction.

What I should have said is without a read it's a clear fold imho.

But I still believe that raising is better than calling although I wouldn't do either one here. This is not just a weak draw, this is a case where you are drawing nearly dead if someone has a 7. I wouldn't be raising for value. I know I don't have equity here. I wouldn't really be raising for a free card in the traditional sense of a free card, either. IF I decided for some reason to continue in the hand, I would be raising not for a free card towards my draw as much as I would be raising in an attempt to get to the showdown cheaper. Here's why:

Calling invites a bet on the turn and river. If your card comes off on the turn, you have to call again and of course you are going to be calling the river as well unless your miracle boat card comes off. If either one of these guys has a 7, you need runner runner KK or QQ to win this pot. The only possible reason for continuing in this hand would be that we are reasonably certain that neither one of these guys has a 7.

If you raise the flop and it's 3-bet, fold. It costs half a bet more than calling and without a read, you can be pretty sure that you're up against trips. For that half a bet extra on the flop, though, a few good things can happen. Maybe they both fold. You never know. .50/1 PP players do strange things. Also, we may take control of the hand and buy ourselves a couple of options on the turn. Maybe a blank comes off and it gets checked through, which is good for us. Maybe it gets checked through even though one of them has a 7 and they were hoping to checkraise the turn. Maybe a K or Q comes off and it gets checked to us.

I believe that the benefits of throwing in the extra .5 BB on the flop outweigh the benefits of getting to the turn cheap because I believe that it will save bets on the turn and possibly the river as well.

There are no reads here, so what do we think here as far as whether or not the SB has a 7? Coinflip? If we're thinking that it's 50/50 then are we going to call hoping to hit a weak draw that is guaranteed to not be good half the time even if we hit it? Whatever we decide the odds are that one of these guys is holding a 7, we need to discount our outs accordingly. It's a clear fold to me.

davelin · #9 03-30-2005, 02:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Without reads, the fold on the turn seems fine.
Maybe I'm wrong but the last thing I would do on the flop is call. Raise or fold depending on the read on the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur with Aaron, the last thing I would do here is raise. The only benefit of raising is getting a free card which doesn't work enough times here to warrant it. I want to see a cheap turn if possible.

SCfuji · #10 03-30-2005, 05:17 AM

i fold this flop. a bettor a caller and an overcaller is enough heat for me, even if i assume these guys call lightly. overcards has been a continuing struggle/leak in my game but with a crowd i dont care if i have position. i have king high trying to hit a pair on a paired board.