This is not a bad beat post

ddubois · #1 07-12-2004, 06:32 AM

Please do not reply "This is why I like party" or "Go play chess, you won't get sucked out on"! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Party Poker No-Limit $10/1 Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (8 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero (t775)
SB (t725)
BB (t1650)
UTG (t1045)
UTG+1 (t495)
MP1 (t700)
MP2 (t1675)
CO (t935)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises to t100, 1 fold, Hero raises to t775 (All-In), 2 folds, MP2 calls t675.

Flop: (t1575) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1575) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1575) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1575
Main Pot: t1575 (t1575), between Hero and MP2. > Pot won by MP2 (t1575).

Results in white below: 
MP2 shows Ad 9h (two pair, aces and nines).
Hero shows Kc As (one pair, aces).
Outcome: MP2 wins t1575. 

I'm having trouble thinking about this hand without being results-oriented. If instead of pushing, I had re-raised him, say 300, we should think he would call, right? I mean, logicically, if he would call an all-in, he would call any re-raise? Or is it possible that pushing somehow represented weakness to this guy? Is trying to guess what he was thinking pointless?

If I reraise preflop to 300, and he called, I'm going to be pushing on that flop, so I'm going to lose regardless, but with the line I took, at least I got all my money in while I was a 3:1 favorite. If I had done the reraise/flop-push line, I would be putting in most of my stack when I'm a big underdog. So, looking at it in a Fundamental Theory sense, I played "perfectly", but I still don't quite feel right about it.

Hood · #2 07-12-2004, 08:14 AM

This could be tricky not to reply and fall foul of what you stated in your first statement, so I'll try.

In the first paragraph you are analysing ways of perhaps getting him to fold - e.g. does going all in show weakness etc. But here you are making the presumption that, because you lost, you didn't want to get called. Getting called with worse cards is why I like ... I mean, why poker is profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
at least I got all my money in while I was a 3:1 favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

This should read 'woohoo, I got all my money in - and got called!! - when I was a 3:1 favourite! I couldn't have played that hand any better, I'm the man!'.

Otherwise, go play chequers, you won't get sucked out on.

Pitcher · #3 07-12-2004, 11:36 AM

Hi Hood,

Exactly! You gotta love it when they call in that situation!

Pitcher

ddubois · #4 07-12-2004, 01:33 PM

First let me say I am thrilled I got my money in as a 1:3 favorite. But what if I wasn't a 1:3 favorite, and I played the same way? What if he had KK, or even an underpair like TT -- would the responses in this thread be the same? Would there be a contigient responding with something to the effect of: "You could have made a small raise, and you're not pot-committed, you can release to a re-raise" etc? Or is: 1) AK too good to give up in that manner and 2) stacks are too small to have that kind of flexibility in my play (i.e. any raise makes me pot committed with my small stack).

It's been said on this board that when someone raises 7xBB, they probably have a middle pair they don't want to be called, like TT, so it's certainly possible I'm a dog to start with, and thus my push is a fold-equity-prayer rather than a +EV pot-equity play. I think this is what's causing me to have questions. I know from TPFAP that AK "prefers to be all-in pre-flop", but extending that ilne of thought, I should just push any time I have AK, even if there's no raise to me. And that doesn't seem right.

Jason Strasser · #5 07-12-2004, 01:49 PM

If your stack is 10x BB push with AK, AA, KK all of it. If your stack is greater than 10x, raise 3x BB with AK. The thing about AK is:

You are never a great favorite unless your opponent holds one ace or one king. But if you have folding equity, it is a powerful hand, because if called it is never behind much.

Say your opponent has 100 chips. Say he has 99. He raises to 30, and you go all in for your 100 chips.

If he calls 50% of the time, and you assume AK vs 99 is 50/50, then your EV is +$15. That is a good enough edge to pound all day long for profit. Then you account for the times your opponent has AQ or KQ, and you are making a very positive EV move.

ddubois · #6 07-12-2004, 02:13 PM

If your stack is 10x BB push with AK, AA, KK all of it. If your stack is greater than 10x, raise 3x BB with AK.

Ah, yeah, that makes sense. I think I was mostly imlpementing that strategy, but I wasn't sure why; putting it in terms of stack sizes makes sense. I also pushed this one time I got AKo as my first hand; hoping one of those idiots who always goes in with crap the first hand would give me action, but no such luck. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Hood · #7 07-13-2004, 05:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
First let me say I am thrilled I got my money in as a 1:3 favorite. But what if I wasn't a 1:3 favorite, and I played the same way? What if he had KK, or even an underpair like TT -- would the responses in this thread be the same?

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps not the whole thread, but they would have been from me.

[ QUOTE ]
Would there be a contigient responding with something to the effect of: "You could have made a small raise, and you're not pot-committed, you can release to a re-raise" etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all. You've already been min-raised to T100. You've only got T775. How can you do a small (yet significant) raise and not be pot comitted?

[ QUOTE ]

Or is: 1) AK too good to give up in that manner and 2) stacks are too small to have that kind of flexibility in my play (i.e. any raise makes me pot committed with my small stack).

[/ QUOTE ]

Both. If you had a stack of T2000, perhaps you could have raised to say T300 and folded to an all in. AK is rarely dominated (only to AA and KK), but I think often a significant favourite (AQ, AJ, KQ) which low-limit SNG players seem to love getting all in on. To a PP it's 50/50. With the fold equity, pushing all in with AK is a great move except in very specific situations.

[ QUOTE ]

It's been said on this board that when someone raises 7xBB, they probably have a middle pair they don't want to be called, like TT, so it's certainly possible I'm a dog to start with, and thus my push is a fold-equity-prayer rather than a +EV pot-equity play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't read that. But if that's the case - and they don't want to get called - then pushing on them surely means you'll get a fold most of the time? Personally, that 7x BB raise could mean anything - 22-AA, AK-A8, KQ-KT.

AJo Go All In · #8 07-12-2004, 09:18 AM

well, at least you're not playing war, the game is completely based on drawing out.

Jason Strasser · #9 07-12-2004, 09:25 AM

War is all skill what are you talking about?

Jason Strasser · #10 07-12-2004, 09:26 AM

Oh, this is a bad beat post. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously, you got your money in a great spot. Don't overthink this hand. Go play chess!