Omaha 8, do you call double low draws?

Say you raise with a hand like A235 suited in O8, after 6 limpers.


Flop comes 7JJ.


Someone bets, do you call your double gutshot low draw? You basically have a nut low draw.


- Tony

You have to catch runner runner low cards to win half the pot. I'd throw it away.

what low draw??


be it high, or be it low, I never call it a draw unless there are 2 on the board


you didn't mention suites of the flop, so guess there is no flush draw for you, and if not , then you really don't have any draw

The first thing you should do is read the essay called "A Few Omaha Odds" by David Sklansky, which can be found on this site.


Yes, you should call. You'll make a low about 28% of the time and most of the time it will be the nut low. Since you (correctly) raised preflop, there should be at least 15 small bets in the pot. Since you'll win half the pot around 1/4 of the time you have an overlay.


Then again, what do I know.


Rube

Tony, As a rule of thumb, you can call ONE bet with a non counterfeitable BACKDOOR (or nearly so such as A24X) low draw and little else as long as the pot was raised before the flop and you have three or more opponents.


Regards,


Rick

How do you figure that?


Lets say there is a total of 4 players, a raise before the flop and a single bet on each of the other rounds. The pot would be 28 small bets and you have put in 5 of them since the flop.


You are playing for 14 small betts which you win 28% of the time. So your expected win is 3.92 for your investment of 5 those time you don't have to share the low side.

You put in 2 of those 5 small bets in preflop. Once you raised preflop and put in 2 small bets, they are part of the pot, and the decision is to continue on the flop with your double gutshot low draw. I guess it depends on how tenacious the opponents are also, if you should call the flop bet?


- Tony

Chaos,


I may have some flaws in my math and logic below but I know you can’t look at it from pre flop to finish. In other words, if you somehow knew your A23x was going to see a flop of QJ8 (with no flush draw) you wouldn’t play it. But you don’t know so you reevaluate post flop.


Keep in mind I only advise taking one off for one bet with position (i.e., you are not likely to get raised behind). If you have is a backdoor low with backup for half the pot you will make it 24.2 percent of the time per the Sklansky Essay on the 2+2 home page.


In a raised four-way pot you will have at least 8 small bets in pre flop. If someone bets the flop and there are a couple callers you have 11 small bets and have a 25% shot at half for one small bet. Of course you don’t continue unless a baby comes but some of those babies will give you half of a pot that could get jammed on the river.


Also note that pots with two high cards on the flop rarely get jammed on the flop and hands with no made low on the turn also don’t get jammed often. So you will usually get to draw cheaply. Of course if you make it you should be more willing to jam with a backdoor low then a regular low, especially if an ace or deuce makes your low (and perhaps counterfeiting the other low draw).


I’d love to see Louie Landale, Ray Zee, Pac Bell Buzz or OhNoNotAgain comment (even if they disagree).


Regards,


Rick

it also depends on like you say, if you think you will be raised. also you have to add in any times you may hog it all by bluffing or making the high hand. from that take away the times you will split the low with someone. so you need to read the hands some, but many times it pays to take one off.

Hi Rick - I don’t think calling one bet following a pre-flop betting round with one raise called by six players, a flop with only one low card, a seven, and with only three opponents also seeing the turn would be worth while, on the average, even if you improved Tony’s hand to A-2-3-4.


Maybe in the early days of Omaha-8, a favorable scenario for the rule of thumb you cite was more likely than it is in a casino today. Ray Zee’s book had not been written then. Maybe more opponents chased.


Whatever. Although I can come up with a favorable scenario for the rule of thumb you cite working, on the average, I feel almost certain I would lose money by playing even the perfect low hand, A-2-3-4, when there is only one low card, say a seven, on the flop, even in the wild and loose games in which I often find myself.


Here is the favorable scenario:


(1) There is one raise before the flop which is called by 6 players, making a total of 12 small bets in the pot after the first betting round. (This is realistic).


(2) There is one small bet on the flop which is called but not raised by each of 4 players, making a total of 12 + 4 = 16 small bets in the pot after the second betting round. (This is also realistic).


(3) There is one big bet on the turn which is called by each of four players, making a sub-total of 4 big bets added to the pot on the third betting round. (This is also realistic).


No bet on the third betting round is simply not realistic, given what has already transpired. No one but a fool would bet on the second betting round and then allow his/her opponents to see a free card on the third betting round.


If you’re playing against such a fool, there will be better opportunities to take his/her money later in the session when you get a flop that meshes better with your hand.


One bet on the turn by the player who bet the flop (or by another player) is realistic. In that case, if low comes in on the river, a betting war between you, holding the nut low, and the opponent who has been leading the betting since the flop does seem feasible.


However, equally feasible is a scenario where there is either only one or only two bets on the river, in which case, considering quartering and sixthing possibilities, you, holding the nut low, would lose money. Also equally feasible is a scenario where at least one player folds to a bet on the river, in which case, again considering quartering and sixthing possibilities, you would also lose money. Also equally feasible is a scenario where there is a raise on the turn, or where at least one player folds to a bet on the turn, in which case, again considering quartering and sixthing possibilities, you would also lose money.


Note that for the rule of thumb you have cited to be successful, (1) three opponents have to stay to see three or four bets on the river, (2) there can be no raising on the turn and (3) when three opponents see four bets on the river, there has to be no more likelihood than with normal distribution that one of them also has the nut low. If any one of these goes awry, your wallet will suffer a loss here.


If none of these goes awry, your average profit figures to be about one small bet. Although normal distribution for getting tied by exactly one other player (quartered) with an ace-deuce nut low in a nine player game is 37.7%, and of being tied by exactly two other players (sixthed) is 5.3%, I used lower numbers in my calculation shown below (28% for being quartered and 2% for being sixthed). I used the lower numbers because they are the approximate probabilities of getting quartered and sixthed with the nut A-2 low in a six player game. In the rare event that 3-4 (or even 2-4, or A-4) would be the nut low, some opponents would have folded some hands with these holdings to the pre-flop raise and some opponents would have folded some hands with these holdings to the bet on the flop. My source for the probability values shown above is an r.g.p. post authored by Harry026.


It’s clearly impossible to know the actual likelihood of any of three opponents on the river to also have the nut low after a pre-flop raise followed by a flop of 7-J-J. I strongly suspect it would be higher than the 28% and 2% I am using below, assuming three opponents stayed for three or four big bets on the river, but it could possibly be lower because of the pre-flop raise and the flop with only one low card.


Note that after a first betting round during which 12 small bets are contributed to the pot, a second betting round during which 4 small bets are contributed, a third betting round during which 4 big bets are contributed, and a final betting round during which 16 big bets are contributed, there is a total of 56 small bets (or 28 big bets) of which the player with A-2-3-4 will have contributed 11 small bets after the first betting round.


Here’s the math for A-2-3-4 after a flop with only one low card which is a 5, 6, 7, or 8 for exactly three opponents, assuming (1) all stay for the showdown, (2) there is one small bet on the flop, (3) one big bet on the turn, (4) four big bets on the river, (5) the probability of being quartered is 0.28 and (6) the probability of being sixthed is 0.02.


(a) -1*(21/45) = -0.4667 .... loss when the turn is unfavorable

(b) -3*(24/44) = -1.6364 .... loss when the river is unfavorable

(c) +(56/2 - 11)*0.248*0.70 = +2.9512 .... gain with an un-split low

(d) +(56/4 -11)*0.248*0.28 = +0.2083 .... gain when quartered

(e) +(56/6 -11)*0.248*0.02 = -0.0083 .... loss when sixthed


total = 1.0481 small bets.


Note that if anything goes awry, if anyone folds on the turn or the river, if there is a raise on the turn, if there are not at least three bets called by at least three opponents on the river, if the probability of being quartered and sixthed goes up substantially, A-2-3-4 loses money.


All things considered, even if the pot is raised before the flop, playing A-2-3-4 or A-2-3-5 to a bet after a flop of 7-J-J, hoping to average a one small bet gain simply doesn’t seem worth while. Playing A-2-4-X seems even less worth while.


If the betting is capped before the flop, then A-2-3-4 is possibly worth playing. In that case, assuming you know your opponents well and they will all do what you mostly want them to do after the flop, your average gain will be about 2.3 small bets. (I write mostly, because I know you don’t want anyone to bet the turn, but that simply is not realistic. If you are going to insist that three opponents will stay on a final betting round which is capped, I must insist that at least one of them bets the turn). [img]/images/glasses.gif[/img] In that case,


(a) -1*(21/45) = -0.4667 .... loss when the turn is unfavorable

(b) -3*(24/44) = -1.6364 .... loss when the river is unfavorable

(c) +(68/2 - 11)*0.248*0.70 = +3.9928 .... gain with an un-split low

(d) +(68/4 -11)*0.248*0.28 = +0.4166 .... gain when quartered

(e) +(68/6 -11)*0.248*0.02 = +0.0017 .... gain when sixthed


= + 2.308 small bets. I still don’t like it much, but after a pre-flop betting round in which 24 small bets are put into the pot I agree it’s hard to give up your share of the 24 small bets when holding A-2-3-4, even after a flop of 7-J-J. The obvious extreme danger is where one of your three opponents folds and you become almost certain that at least one of your two opponents remaining also holds the nut low.


Buzz