KK checkup

btspider · #1 02-08-2005, 10:37 PM

Villians seem typical (not overly loose or aggro).

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

checking with outs. i would have bet against 1 opponent. bet here for a free showdown? (call a check-raise?)

River: (5 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero folds.

I would call, but I did not want to overcall.

shadow29 · #2 02-08-2005, 10:47 PM

Looks good to me, chief.

mr pink · #3 02-08-2005, 10:48 PM

i'm not sure but i think the general idea behind checking with outs is when your out of position. seems like you let this one go a little early, there are a lot of draws out there that you don't want to give a free card to. i think you should have bet the turn, and tried to get to a free showdown. i'd probably fold to a check/raise. i think to check/raise a preflop raiser on a board with an ace, they'd have to have your kings beat pretty badly.

LoaferGee12 · #4 02-08-2005, 10:54 PM

I'd bet this turn and take the free showdown UI

btspider · #5 02-08-2005, 11:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet this turn and take the free showdown UI

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calling a check-raise? that's the hard part [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mr pink · #6 02-08-2005, 11:22 PM

the checkraise was inevitable?

btspider · #7 02-08-2005, 11:34 PM

no, but you should have a plan before you bet.

buzzbait · #8 02-08-2005, 11:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]

calling a check-raise? that's the hard part [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks like a spot for one of those bayesian analyses, but I'm not sure exactly how to do it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

However, I feel like you should call a c/r on the turn here as you have some outs unless you are up against KJ or AA, both of which are less likely than other possibilities. (KJ b/c you have KK and AA b/c that would have prob been 3-bet pre-flop)

At worst you are getting 8:1 to call a c/r (if sb raises and utg folds) So in the cases he has AQ (not hearts), AT (not hearts), QQ, or TT you have 6 outs (4J and 2K) and if he has QT (not hearts) you have 12 outs (4J, 2K,3A, and 3 3s) and if he has QT hearts you still have 9 outs. So, in all of those cases you have the odds to call at 8:1. Even if he has AQ or AT of hearts, you only need to make up one bet on the river. So, I think in most situations you have the odds to call the c/r.

Then I would fold to a bet on the river unimproved, but I am not sure if that falls into the "don't fold on the river for one bet in a big pot" scenario as you would be getting at least 10:1 on that.

LoaferGee12 · #9 02-08-2005, 11:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet this turn and take the free showdown UI

[/ QUOTE ]

calling a check-raise? that's the hard part [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd call a check-raise here. You have 4-outs to the nuts and 2 that may give you the best hand. I'd put that around 5 total outs. That puts you about 9:1 to hit and you're getting 8:1 pot odds here. You can easily make up a bet or 2 on the river.

Edit: This is assuming you will fold to a river bet UI (correct play IMO).

Nate tha' Great · #10 02-09-2005, 12:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet this turn and take the free showdown UI

[/ QUOTE ]

calling a check-raise? that's the hard part [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd call a check-raise here. You have 4-outs to the nuts and 2 that may give you the best hand. I'd put that around 5 total outs. That puts you about 9:1 to hit and you're getting 8:1 pot odds here. You can easily make up a bet or 2 on the river.

Edit: This is assuming you will fold to a river bet UI (correct play IMO).

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not likely that he has 5 equivalent outs here if behind. The cards that he needs are likely to be somewhat dead. There's also a not-insignificant chance that an opponent has a made straight if he's faced with a check-raise, in which case he's drawing to 1.5 outs for a chop. The K could also fill in somebody's else's straight. I'd put it at something more like 3.5 outs, which wouldn't be enough to call a check-raise.