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#1
10-06-2005, 05:10 PM
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No escape
50NL Full Ring
Hero ~$140 CO ~ $14 (loose and bad) Button ~$50 (9.3/0/2.5 over 80 hands) Hero is MP3 with QQ, raises to $3 after a couple limpers, CO and Button call, limpers fold. Flop: 10 5 5 r/b Hero bets $8, CO pushes for ~$4 more, Button calls, Hero calls Turn: 6 Hero checks, Button bets $12, Hero calls River: 2 Hero checks, Button all-in for $14, Hero calls Who has a good exit strategy for this hand? 
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#2
10-06-2005, 05:16 PM
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Re: No escape
[ QUOTE ]
50NL Full Ring Hero ~$140 CO ~ $14 (loose and bad) Button ~$50 (9.3/0/2.5 over 80 hands) Hero is MP3 with QQ, raises to $3 after a couple limpers, CO and Button call, limpers fold. Flop: 10 5 5 r/b Hero bets $8, CO pushes for ~$4 more, Button calls, Hero calls Turn: 6 Hero checks, Button bets $12, Hero calls River: 2 Hero checks, Button all-in for $14, Hero calls Who has a good exit strategy for this hand? [/ QUOTE ] Honestly, it looks fine to me. <font color="white">Which, of course, means Amoeba will come and explain how your line was sub-optimal and I'll immediately see where I was wrong. </font> Learning is fun.
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#3
10-06-2005, 05:22 PM
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Re: No escape
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 50NL Full Ring Hero ~$140 CO ~ $14 (loose and bad) Button ~$50 (9.3/0/2.5 over 80 hands) Hero is MP3 with QQ, raises to $3 after a couple limpers, CO and Button call, limpers fold. Flop: 10 5 5 r/b Hero bets $8, CO pushes for ~$4 more, Button calls, Hero calls Turn: 6 Hero checks, Button bets $12, Hero calls River: 2 Hero checks, Button all-in for $14, Hero calls Who has a good exit strategy for this hand? [/ QUOTE ] Honestly, it looks fine to me. <font color="white">Which, of course, means Amoeba will come and explain how your line was sub-optimal and I'll immediately see where I was wrong. </font> Learning is fun. [/ QUOTE ] Lol. I'm not the last word on everything and I try to reread everything I post to make sure I don't give bad advice. I'm learning just like you guys are. actually I think this is fine. its a tough spot to be in but if you decided your hand is good then its the best line to take. push on flop doesn't reopen bettin so nothing you could do there. I suppose you can check fold the turn but you need really good read to do that I think. and you can't bet any amount that really allows you to comfortably fold to a raise. everything looks good. you are going to get overpair stacked sometimes.
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#4
10-06-2005, 05:24 PM
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Re: No escape
[ QUOTE ]
push on flop doesn't reopen bettin so nothing you could do there. [/ QUOTE ] Opps...missed that lol.
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#6
10-06-2005, 05:22 PM
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Re: No escape
I'll give you a hint - I lost
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#7
10-06-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: No escape
[ QUOTE ]
I'll give you a hint - I lost [/ QUOTE ] Give more than a hint, so we can try to understand the hand from Villains' perspectives.
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#8
10-06-2005, 06:08 PM
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Re: No escape
Yeah hehe, thought so after I realized you asked for an exit strategy. It's easy to determine the EV of the river because the villain is a set farming douche.
He has 0 PFR, so he probably only raises with AA-KK, or probably doesn't even raise with those. So we will discount those a bit. By his betting pattern we can assume the following... AA-22 can each be dealt 6 ways. Now he might not be playing 99-66 (with the exception of 55) this way because they wouldn't be top pair. Maybe he's crazy and plays 22 this way (doom's day scenario). So we'll discount those along with AA-KK because he might or might not raise those hands. So I think he could have the following (don't include QQ because you split the pot)... AA 4 ways, KK 4 ways, JJ 6 ways, TT 3 ways, 99 3 ways, 88 3 ways, 77 3 ways, 66 3 ways, 55 1 way, 22 1 way. So you are beating 18 ways and losing to 16 ways. I think the button has like ~$45 the way you did the betting? 15 times you win ~$98 16 times you lose ~$45 $1470-$720 = $750 Avg Per Hand = 750/31 = +EV $24 So there really is no getting away from this. Especially from with his 2+ aggression factor, I think this is a reasonable analysis, covering all our bases and even the worst case scenarios. It's a good line. Also be aware that you need to do elaborate analyses like these instantaneously in your head while at the poker table before your online timer runs out, or you'll never be a winning player.
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#9
10-06-2005, 05:21 PM
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Re: No escape
Button is a pretty tight player who never raises the flop. On the other hand he's fairly aggressive post-flop if he catches something. Based on the 9% VPIP I'm going to guess that button does NOT have a 5 (although 55 is a possibility). He *may* have TT, but most likely he's got a T with some other suited broadway card.
Even if we give villain the broadest possible hand range, you're ahead of an aweful lot of that. Unfortunately you didn't do anything to define your hand, or his. CO's raise is pretty meaningless. He's probably just off-stacking his last $4, and would do this with any T or any PP..or even just a 3 flush heh. As you played it, I don't think there's any way out. Personally, I would have re-raised the flop or, more likely, lead the turn. If button plays back at you, you can comfortably fold, if not, you win some extra chips.
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#10
10-06-2005, 05:24 PM
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Re: No escape
[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately you didn't do anything to define your hand, or his. [/ QUOTE ] When is a good time to do this? Once CO pushes and Button calls, the pot is already huge. If I bet the turn and he pushes, I am going to be getting like 7:1 on a call.
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