42o and almost out of chips

[jcm4ccc]

Should I have called this? I had 470 chips after posting

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t4595)
Button (t1730)
SB (t6105)
Hero (t1070)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1730</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t1880

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
No showdown. Button wins t1880. </font>

[lastchance]

Right now, you can do significant damage to Button's stack size and get third place.

More importantly, you only have 470 chips after posting. I don't think for a second before I call.

[ZebraAss]

I guess I would have to call too. Bad luck getting that hand, I bet you wish you pushed UTG, huh.

Just remember you will get AQ off suit just as much as 4 2 off suit. You just got the short end of it, this time.

ALL-IN...BIG MONEY!!!!

[SuitedSixes]

Good fold. 42o is not a hand to be calling a raise with, no matter how small your stack. You will certainly improve next hand (32o is the only worse hand), and give someone else a chance to make a mistake.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Good fold. 42o is not a hand to be calling a raise with, no matter how small your stack. You will certainly improve next hand (32o is the only worse hand), and give someone else a chance to make a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

He must call. 1st, his win% needs to be only 22.6% to make calling corrrect according to the ICM. His win% is definitely &gt;22.6% even with a hand as poor as 42o. 2nd, there are no other short stacks for him to outlast. 3rd, if he folds, he'll be shoring up the position of the 2nd shortest stack. 4th, if he folds, he will have 0 folding equity...and *the big stacks will not be able to give him the blinds* to keep the bubble going longer because he won't have enough chips to complete in the SB. 5th, though the stack placements will not be especially favorable if he wins the hand, he'll have enough chips to have a fair bit of FE.

[SuitedSixes]

I am not equipped to get into an ICM battle with you, and I looked it up, 42o is supposed to win 33.2% again any two random cards, although because the fold came from the button (raising two players, not one) we can assume that this hand is better than any two.

I am a big believer in surving on the bubble, by not calling with bad hands. I think that I am aggressive enough (even short-stacked) 3-handed that I have a great shot at winning once we get that 4th guy out of the way. My basic argument is this: You're going to have to gamble, no matter what. Wait for something better than 42o. With your way if he gambles with 42o and wins, he'll have 2440t (Which is why you think I'm wrong).

In my scenario, he'll fold this hand and post the next blind, which is 300t - leaving him with 170. If it folds to him, he will, hopefully have something better than 42o and put his last 170 against a true "any two" where, if he wins, he will have 940 and then two hands to wait for something to push with (still better than 42o).

If he does get a caller or a raiser when he's in the SB and pushes, then he will have 1240t (if the BB folds, 1410 if not).

If Hero goes Ilya's way and gambles with 42o, he'll have more chips to be more competitive the rest of the way. If Hero goes my way, he going to have to gamble, and it will take two winning hands to reach Ilya's chip total, but hopefully he'll be doing it with something better than 42o.

I would just rather take my chance with two hands better than 42o.

[lorinda]

we can assume that this hand is better than any two.

I'd be interested in how much difference this makes for a reasonably wide range, if someone could be so kind, because you are less likely to be up against 54, 74, 92 etc which are included in the random hand calculations.

I have a feeling, although no actual idea, that it may not hurt you much.

Edit: 54 is a really bad example, but hopefully you get the idea [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Lori

[ilya]

Hi Lori,

It may make a difference to your win% but it doesn't change the ICM-correct action. For example, you have ICM-odds to call against AA-KK/AK (and it's not that close, 25.4% vs. 22.6%).

[ilya]

If we drop, say, 83(s)-43(s) and 82(s)-32(s), 42o becomes 32.1% to win, as compared to 33.2% against a random hand. So yeah, it doesn't make much of a difference.

[ilya]

I hate calling with bad hands as much as the next guy, but you just don't have a choice here. If you fold, and if everyone folds to your SB next hand, you will have a 50/50 shot at busting/doubling up to *less* than what you had before you posted the BB in this hand.
Let's say you get lucky and win that next hand. The chip count going into the hand following that will then be:

SB: 4125 (3825 after posting)
BB: 2630 (2030 after posting)
UTG: 5805
Hero (button): 940

If UTG always folds and if you push 100% of the time and if the SB always folds, you are 50/50 to bust or chip up to 2180 with an inevitable showdown against the BB.

Your 42o is most likely better than 25% to win and leave you with 2440, 260 more than the 2180.

Of course, you might triple up or better on either of those next two hands. If you triple up on the 1st hand, especially, you will have some chips and your risk of busting will likely have been less than 75%. But UTG and the Button, seeing you almost all-in (and you really just can't fold there no matter what) will usually only come in with above-average hands. Sometimes the button will decide he wants you alive and raise with a trash hand to drive out the BB and triple you up...but for this to happen he needs to a, be dealt a weak hand and b, figure that he wouldn't be giving you TOO many chips by tripling you up to 1410.

If you do manage to double up, you have 2 tries to catch a decent hand to push with. But this isn't as great as it seems. For one, you'll have to fold out 1 or 2 players to get a HU showdown against the BB. Also, while you're a 3:1 favorite to catch a top 50% hand, you're a slight underdog (56:44) to catch the best hand at the table on even 1 of your 2 tries. Yes, someone might fold a better hand against your push, but this is unlikely if your hand is in the top 30%. So you still can't figure to be much better than 50/50 for your second showdown.
Also, if you do catch a nice hand, you won't be able to get nearly as much out of it as you would be if you'd called and won with the 42o.