pop quiz

[elindauer]

Old man river decides one day to check his pokertracker database. He's been playing for a LONG time. In particular, he's wondering about how well he's handled all those crying calls over the years.

Old man river decides to examine all the times he was getting 19:1 to call, heads up, but could only beat a bluff.

Since old man river reads 2+2, he knows his math. Getting 19:1 to call, he needs to win 5% of the time to justify calling. He runs the SQL query and discovers... his win rate in these situations is exactly 5%!

He's too tight. Old men are always too tight. I'm very interested in seeing who can think straight at 3:48 AM and enlighten me on this matter. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

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He's too tight. Old men are always too tight.

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If instead of calling he raised a few times would that bring up his win rate?

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
If instead of calling he raised a few times would that bring up his win rate?

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why would you EVER RAISE SOMEONE WHO IS BLUFFING ON THE RIVER when you beat a bluff(but no legitamite hands)???

you might consider a bluff-raise when you think they are bluffing but still have you beat, but that is a very rare spot

[ QUOTE ]

why would you EVER RAISE SOMEONE WHO IS BLUFFING ON THE RIVER when you beat a bluff(but no legitamite hands)???

you might consider a bluff-raise when you think they are bluffing but still have you beat, but that is a very rare spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you sortof answered you own question if the're bluffing and you know you can beet them why not raise to maximize your profit? If they call more money for you, if they fold the same as if you had called.

[Bez]

You have just revealed a huge leak in your game. If you think someone is bluffing you on the river, the last thing you want to do is raise, as already pointed out.

If you raise:

When you are ahead, your opponent will fold and you gain $0 extra.

When your read is wrong and you are behind, your opponent will either:

a) call, costing you 1 big blind or
b) raise, costing you 1 or 2 big blinds depending on your move (hopefully you'll be folding to a raise, but who knows given your raise?)

There is little chance your raise will fold out a better hand at the micros, somewhere close to 0%.

[rgb]

To turn a profit in this situation he could..

1. Make more good calls when his true odds are better than 19:1.

2. Make more good folds when his true odds are worse than 19:1.

Over a large sample, the opportunity for 1 and 2 would be about the same. If OMR had played perfect poker his good calls would be balanced out by his good folds and so his calling frequncy would be the same.

Therefore, he is neither too tight nor too loose -- he just has to make better decisions.


rgb

Meant to reply to OP -- put post in wrong place.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

why would you EVER RAISE SOMEONE WHO IS BLUFFING ON THE RIVER when you beat a bluff(but no legitamite hands)???

you might consider a bluff-raise when you think they are bluffing but still have you beat, but that is a very rare spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you sortof answered you own question if the're bluffing and you know you can beet them why not raise to maximize your profit? If they call more money for you, if they fold the same as if you had called.

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everytime they call the raise YOU LOSE THE POT! so if you beat a bluff but nothing else, and the odds of them bluffing are at least what you need to breakeven you call. They never call the raise with a BLUFF!

The problem with your thought process is, that they aren't always bluffing, so when you raise they fold every hand you beat, and call or 3bet with hands you lose to, so you minimize your profit by raising when all you beat is a bluff HU on the river

you throw away a BB everytime you raise in a spot like that, like I said its very rare for you to be HU against someone who could be bluffing often, but you can't beat a bluff, that is the spot for a bluff-raise


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SSHE suggests raising a bluffer in order to fold a better hand from a player behind us yet to act as a +EV move.

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yeah I guess I didn't specify that I was talking about HU river play.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If instead of calling he raised a few times would that bring up his win rate?

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you EVER RAISE SOMEONE WHO IS BLUFFING ON THE RIVER when you beat a bluff(but no legitamite hands)???

you might consider a bluff-raise when you think they are bluffing but still have you beat, but that is a very rare spot

[/ QUOTE ]


SSHE suggests raising a bluffer in order to fold a better hand from a player behind us yet to act as a +EV move.