Confidence Boosting -- 10/20 Hand #4 (of 4)

[Schneids]

When I play poker I like playing confidently, and October did a good job of tearing away some confidence so the last few days I have been playing 8-tables of 10/20 6max to regain that necessary swagger, and along with that, analyzing my game more closely. Here is a a checkup hand from those first 3000 hands of playing this game:

5 handed. I raise Jh9h UTG. Button 3 bets. BB calls I call.

Flop Jc 7s 2h. BB checks, I check, button bets, BB raises, I 3 bet, button folds, BB calls. I am pretty sure I'm going to check any turn but a 9 or maybe a jack.

Turn Qh. BB checks, I check.

River 6c. BB checks, I bet.

Assume no reads for this hand or any hands I post, though I am playing 33/23.5/2.0 style and some opponents may or may not be noticing this.

[wackjob]

bet the turn.

[baronzeus]

i would bet the turn

[Victor]

i have no idea what you are doing here. if you think you are behind, as the turn check indicates, why do you 3bet the flop?

[ QUOTE ]
i have no idea what you are doing here. if you think you are behind, as the turn check indicates, why do you 3bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

[w_alloy]

[ QUOTE ]
i have no idea what you are doing here. if you think you are behind, as the turn check indicates, why do you 3bet the flop?

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I think he thinks he is behind more than half the time, but not enough that he should fold. The turn 3 bet gives information, folds buttons overcards, and often allows him to get to sd cheaper by a turn or river check. I think this is a reall good line here (well not exactly but we'll get to that) because it looks like hero is ahead maybe 30-40% of the time. This is enough to continue, especially since you will often have outs if you arent ahead, but not enough to value bet with.

As for the turn check, I agree with Dane 100%. I like the check with the heart draw, but what if a blank had hit?

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn 3 bet gives information, folds buttons overcards, and often allows him to get to sd cheaper by a turn or river check.

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I really like your analysis of the flop/turn plan except for the gain information part. Really the only hand you gain information about is the button's, but if he has a good hand you are paying 2 bbs to find out. The bb will nearly always just call the flop 3-bet if button drops and will let you know what he has on the turn. I think Schneider's plan was to get to sd as cheaply as possible while not letting the button draw to overcards, and you hit this right on.

I don't like the turn check, however, regardless of the card that hits. The range of hands the bb will check raise this flop with is fairly large and will include nearly all of his one pair holdings, most of which the OP has beat. I would be looking to protect my hand with a turn bet no matter what card hit (except maybe 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
i have no idea what you are doing here. if you think you are behind, as the turn check indicates, why do you 3bet the flop?

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not that I necessarily agree with the 3-bet, but there's a big difference between the flop 3-bet and the turn check. the turn check basically means he values his 5 potential outs more than the value of an additional bet. the flop 3-bet is mostly dictated by his pot odds, which justify staying in, and 3-betting is mandatory to blow the button off a couple of overs. if the button caps it or calls 2 and bets the turn, schneids has a pretty easy fold

he's probably best here around half the time so there's very little value in betting. also, checking the turn might induce a bluff on the river from a hand that would've folded (doubtful).

let's say he bet the turn and was called. the river is a pretty thin value bet. so he's getting 1 bet from this guy either way, and he'd rather maximize his chances of sucking out if he's behind. he also won't get blown off the best hand this way, though that is also doubtful.

I don't think there's much difference between any of the 3 lines (check then bet or call, bet then check, or bet then bet again) since he's probably close 50/50 with this guy

EDIT: I missed that he has a heart draw. I think he has to bet because the extra bet he gains on the river when he connects far outweighs him getting c/r'ed on the turn

[Stefan_K]

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I am pretty sure I'm going to check any turn but a 9 or maybe a jack.

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why check 3-bet flop and check turn what is the idée with this and similar play?

[Danenania]

This looks okay to me though I think I'd rather bet/fold the turn and check behind an UI river. Why did you choose your line over that one?