Flopped low 2-pair, pf raiser bets

1/2 Limit on Bet365. Villain, after 50 hands, is 15.52/13.79/6

Hero dealt 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pre-flop: UTG calls, Hero calls, Villain raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG calls, Hero calls

Flop (9.5 SB) (4 players): Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG checked, Hero checked, Villain bet, MP3 folded, UTG folded, Hero ???

<font color="blue"> </font> Also, should I have bet the flop?

[xenthebrain]

I wouldn't bet into this many people with just the 2s.
Fold to the bet.

[Paxosmotic]

You didn't flop a low 2-pair. That's like saying you hold AKs on a QQQ flop and you flopped trips. You flopped an underpair. Just fold, you have two outs and enormous reverse implied odds.

[RandBriscoe]

Auto-fold.

I folded.

Afterwards, however, I wondered if raising to try to win the pot might be a reasonable play.

Here is my thinking. The Villain had shown massive aggression post-flop (and pre-flop, though tight). The board paired, making it less likely he hit his hand (assuming he did not have a pocket pair). If he missed his hand, the flop bet could simply be a continuation bet.

Given his tight nature, if he missed his hand, I think he might have folded to a check-raise. (I unintentionally omitted saying that he had not gone to any showdowns -- he either folded or was able to get his opponents to fold previously.) With 10.5 SB in the pot, if I raised (2 SB), that means I need to win the pot right then a little less than 20% of the time. (And I'm not putting any more money in U/I.) With Villain's stats, I wonder if I do get him to fold 20% of the time. I still suspect not because I wouldn't expect him to bet into 3 people, but a continuation bet is so common here . . . anyhow, that's why I posted this hand.

[milesdyson]

i'd raise this flop and bet the turn. he raises a bunch preflop and ace high hands look good on this flop, so it wouldn't surprise me at all that he'd bet here 4-handed AK/AJ/ATs/KJs/KTs. do you really think he'd not bet unimproved on the flop?

the great thing too is he may wind up folding 88-JJ either to the flop raise or to the turn bet. i can't see why everyone is saying this is an auto-fold.

[Fryguy]

I totally agree, when I saw this hand, I definetely saw it as a raise or fold situation. One of a few things happens here if we raise:

1. He folds right there, good for us
2. He checks the turn to us, in which case we bet and fold to a raise.
3. We get either 3-bet or stop-n-go'd, in which case we fold (optionally call a flop 3-bet and fold turn ui)

[ QUOTE ]
i'd raise this flop and bet the turn. he raises a bunch preflop and ace high hands look good on this flop, so it wouldn't surprise me at all that he'd bet here 4-handed AK/AJ/ATs/KJs/KTs. do you really think he'd not bet unimproved on the flop?

the great thing too is he may wind up folding 88-JJ either to the flop raise or to the turn bet. i can't see why everyone is saying this is an auto-fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Shillx]

Eh I guess you can call and re-evaluate. There are some negative implied odds here as you are pretty much going to the end if you call now and the turn is a safe looking card. That plan seems reasonable enough to me though. Fold on 4th street if a bad card hits (an ace for example).

The only play I really hate is raising here. I can run some numbers on the EV of calling if you want me to. Actually I'll just do it because it is an interesting spot.

Brad

[Shillx]

Let's say that we check/fold to any turn A or Q. If the turn card isn't an ace or queen we will call-call no matter what comes on the river. Even if a deuce comes off we will just call for the sake of this exercise.

His range: 55+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

Our 4th Street Win% = 36

EVfold now = 0

EVcalldown = .851(.36*9.75BB - 2.5BB) = + .86 BB
EVfold turn = .148*-0.5BB = -.07 BB

EVnet = ~ + 0.8 BB

This plan should work as long as you can count on him to put bets in with less then what you have. If he will sometimes give up on the river then it is closer, but calling down in this spot seems okay.

Brad

If we fold to any turn broadway...

EVcalldown = .596(.41*9.75BB - 2.5BB) = + .89 BB
EVfold turn = .404*-0.5BB = - .2 BB

EVnet = ~ + 0.7 BB

*Edited to say that I accidentally put in those times that we will call (on the river) even when our 2-pair turns to crap. So the actual EV will be somewhat higher then predicted since we would fold when the board is double paired.

Thanks for running those numbers. It's interesting because I would not have suspected that calling was anything but the third option here.

Why do you hate raising here? As I mentioned above, in retrospect I am thinking that there is a decent argument that he folds 1 in 5 times to a flop check-raise, making such a check-raise correct.