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#1
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AKo with a KQ flop
fold[/i]</font>, BB calls.
Flop: (8.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls. Turn: (8.33 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls. River: (10.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls. Final Pot: 12.33 BB Villain is 26/12/2.1. I was very close to mucking it on the turn. Does villain do this enough with draws to make it a profitable call down? |
#2
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Re: AKo with a KQ flop
what happened preflop? its cut off
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#3
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Re: AKo with a KQ flop
Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls. Flop: (8.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls. Turn: (8.33 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls. River: (10.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls. Final Pot: 12.33 BB Oops |
#4
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Re: AKo with a KQ flop
mabye fold the river??? It's a pretty big pot though. This would be a tough laydown and may be incorrect. I think the PF and flop action is standard, as is the turn. I'd probably play it the same.
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#5
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Re: AKo with a KQ flop
I might as well analyze my own post because I'm bored and I've wanted to do this kind of analysis for a while.
Range of hands I put him on: 44, KQ, AJh, JTh, A4h. Likelihood: KQ 50% JTh 20% 44 15% AJh 10% A4h 5% Why that distribution? A pure bluff is pretty much out of the question as he's not a maniac. QQ, KK and AK would be reraised PF. Those are the only other reasonable hands a person with those stats would call with. KQ is the most likely because the others are mostly draws and when he's in position, I don't think he'd cap with a draw. He would play a set of 4's exactly like that but purely based on the probability of flopping a set and it's a shady call PF, it's less likely. A4h, AJh, JTh would depend on the player. Many would not call with A4h PF but he is a bit loose and that is why it is less likely. AJh is a strong draw but still a draw so I dont know if he would cap with it. JTh is a huge draw and would probably be capped. KQ 50% - 7 outs on the turn JTh 20% - (2J, 3T, 3A, 8h) He has 16 outs 44 15% - 4 outs AJh 10% - (2J, 9h) He has 11 outs to win and 3 to split. A4h 5% - (2fours, 9h) He has 11 outs to win and 3 to split. (7/46)*.5 + (30/46)*.2 + (4/46)*.15 + (35/46)*.1 + (35/46)*.05 = .3337 (3/46)*.1 + (3/46)*.05 = .00326 33.37% to win. .326% to split. I don't think there is any folding equity on the turn and I am behind most of the time so raising is a no. I am getting 9.33:1 with a 2:1 chance of winning. Easy call down. I think I played it correctly. (This is my first time analyzing a hand this in depth. If you see any mistakes please point them out.) |
#6
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Re: AKo with a KQ flop
It took me a long time to write that up and I think people may have missed it so bump :P
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#7
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Re: AKo with a KQ flop
I think a call here is correct, folding the river with a pot this big would be a mistake unless you had an excellect read on the player.
But I think after your excellent analysis you know that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] |
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