How much EV did this Bellagio dealer error cost me?

[M.B.E.]

I wasn't in this hand, but I think the dealer's error (misreading the final board) hurt me as much or more as the player who was deprived of half the pot.

It's a one-table NLHE satellite where the top two finishers each get a $1060 seat into another satellite plus $60 cash. Third place gets nothing. We're now down to the final three, and I am in second with exactly one-third of the chips in play. Blinds are 300/600 (no ante) and stack sizes are:

SB: 8100
BB: 1900
me (button): 5000

I fold, the SB makes a substantial raise, and BB calls for all his chips. The cards are turned up preflop; SB (the chip leader) has AJo, and BB has 76o. Obviously I'm pretty happy at this point because if the SB wins the hand, the tournament will be over and I will have won.

(As an aside, what do you think of the BB's call? It seems like it might be correct if he expected the SB to make that raise with any two cards. However, the SB had not been playing aggressively.)

The flop has a jack with no 7 or 6 so it looks like it's all over, barring a runner-runner miracle. I stand up and look away for a second. When I look back there's a straight on board, 8-9-T-J-Q. Oh well. But the next thing I know, the dealer has gathered the cards and pushed the whole pot to the BB. I scream "what are you doing?" at the dealer, and he looks at me like I'm crazy, but doesn't say anything. The BB quickly stacks the pot (which of course doesn't matter since he'd been all-in).

The satellite director comes over. The dealer can't coherently explain what the issue is, but I explain that the cards were face up preflop, and the final board was a straight so it should have been a chop. The dealer just said that he had not seen a straight on board. The BB said that he had rivered a straight with his 76. He also had not seen a straight on board. The SB said that he thought he had won outright with his jack. He thought the tournament was over and had stood up to shake hands.

I say that I'm certain the final board was 8-9-T-J-Q, and I'm certain there was a queen and jack on the flop, but I don't remember in what order the other three cards appeared. The BB says that he knew he needed a 5 or ten for a straight, and hit the ten on the river. He says he can't remember whether or not there was a queen on board. Obviously the flop was either Q-J-9 or Q-J-8, with a 9 or 8 on the turn and a ten on the river completing a board straight.

The satellite director says that the hand is over and he isn't going to make adjustments now based only on one player's word. He says it's "three against one" -- in other words, the dealer and the two players in the hand did not see a straight on board, but I did. I ask him to go to the camera and he refuses, telling the dealer to deal the next hand, which he does. This discussion takes about ten minutes, during which the clock is of course stopped. However, then the satellite director consults with another Bellagio person who tells him to call surveillance to check the camera. So we wait another ten minutes or so. The word comes back that the camera could not see the board cards. (That's because the Bellagio tournament events were not in the regular poker room, but in a roped-off space in the middle of the casino normally used for blackjack.)

At this point, I concede that since the camera results are inconclusive, the dealer error has to stand, with the BB keeping the whole pot. But the SB is now strongly objecting, saying essentially that since I was the only one paying attention, my version should be accepted. He repeats that he didn't see the straight, and can't remember whether there was a queen on board, but he thought he had won the whole pot with a pair of jacks. I can't fault him for just being honest of course.

Anyway, the chip standings now are 6200-5000-3800 instead of 8100-5000-1900. It's now my big blind (600). The top two places get $1120 each (as I mentioned) with third place getting nothing. So how much EV did the dealer's error cost me?

[Bozeman]

Ugh.

The dealers error cost you about $115 ($878-$765), presuming equal players.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh.

The dealers error cost you about $115 ($878-$765), presuming equal players.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does that account for me being about to take the big blind, which was large in relation to stack size? Sounds about right. However, after the decision came back, we cut a deal where I got only $740 -- I shortchanged myself out of another $15.

Stacks were:
button-6200;
SB-3800;
BB[me]-5000.

The deal was $800-$700-$740. I knew at the time that the SB -- who had just benefitted immensely from the dealer error -- was now getting another benefit from this deal. But when the chip leader said he was willing to accept $800, it seemed to me that I was still coming out a bit ahead in the deal even though the short stack was benefitting more. Guess I was wrong.

Incidentally, Bozeman, what do you think of the short stack's all-in call in the BB with 76?

[Bozeman]

No, I didn't account for the position. Worst case scenario is SB raises your BB and you fold, giving $864, 688, 688. So your expectation is somewhere between 688 and 765, random guess: 740. Wow, that happens to be exactly what you got (I didn't consider that in my guesstimation).

The big stack is giving away ~$70 in any deal, and lost ~$150 by failing to read the board.

This is one of the few times that variance is so big I would consider taking a deal where I got the worst of it.

I think the small stack's call is correct. If he folds this and his sb, he needs to double up just to get back to where he is. He has a significant amount of money already in, if he folds he can barely put pressure on you, and not put pressure on the big stack, and his cards are probably live. He is going to be taking the worst of it, but the bigger upside makes up for it.

Craig