what a beat I put on this guy

[leon]

So for a change I thought I'd post a hand that I know from the outset I misplayed. However, I'll explain my reasoning in a seperate post. I wanted to see what you all thought first.

5-5 PLH @ foxwoods. Decent game but nothing special. 4-5 people limp for 5$, I limp with 67d, 7ish to the flop in an unraised pot.

Flop comes 7 5d Ad. A decent player with a stack of about 400$ bets 15$. I call with about 1K. All fold to a good player in early position, also with about 1K who raises the pot 90$ more. First guy thinks for a while and calls. I raise the pot 330$. Early guy thinks and calls, other guy mucks.

Turn is a 6. I bet 500$ to put him all in. He calls.

River is a 7. I'll save the guy's hand for later but suffice to say I put a beat on him.

Leon

[sam h]

Presto?

Why didn't you raise the initial bet on the flop? That might have made this hand a little easier to play.

Given the way you played it, I think I prefer just calling the checkraise from EP and reevaluating on the turn. But if your raise got the other player to fold a better diamond draw, then I guess its good.

[leon]

I did consider raising the initial flop bet of 15$, but it was such a small bet compared to stack and pot size at that point I figured a call was the best option. I do have a drawing hand of sorts, and a raise by me can lead to a reraise which I can't call. I don't want to bet myself out of this pot just yet. I agree the play could have merit in the right spot.

As far as flat calling the reraise to 90$, I'll elaborate more in the results. Please also see my correction of the original post.

Leon

[leon]

The actions and bet sizes are correct, but the good player was in late position, not early. So on the flop it goes-

EP bet 15, I call, LP raise to 90, call, I reraise 300ish, LP call, EP muck.

Turn- I bet, he calls.

Slight clarification. It was late when I wrote the post last night.

Leon

[leon]

For any who might have been interested-

Nutshell review- Flop 3 handed, I flop middle pair and a flush draw. Bet of 15$ to me, I call, LP raises pot, EP calls, I reraise pot.

Here I did this with the thinking I wouldn't get called by either player. I suspected EP was on a draw or had a weak hand that he wouldn't want to invest the rest of his stack with. Here I was right as the EP folded. The LP is another story. I had him on at least a good ace, but thought he might not call a repot. In addition, I had flush outs. I was actually surprised when he called the flop reraise. It took a while so at this point I don't put him on a set.

The turn is actually pretty automatic in my opinion. We both have 500$ left, pot is around 1K, I turn 2 pair and still have a flush draw. If he bets I certainly call- better to put him all in and to a decision first. I also thought I caught up here, which I later learned was erroneous. LP had A5 for a flopped two pair.

So I overplayed my hand on the flop. However, LP probably misplayed his too. If he repots again I can't call with what was at that point middle pair and a draw. He recognized that after the hand. He shouldn't just call the flop reraise b/c short of another 7 coming on the turn, counterfeiting his two pair, he's committed himself to the hand too. So better to reraise again all in on the flop, and let the cards fall where they may, and protect his hand to the absolute maximum.

All in all a fairly interesting hand for me. Once the 6 comes on the turn he's dead b/c I'm committed and I get there, but I certainly overplayed to get to the turn.

Leon

[Ignatius]

This correction changes things dramatically. According to your first post, it was pretty obvious that he was on twopair or better with aces-up being his most likely hand. Now, he might also be on a flush draw (or maybe even a str8-draw, although this would be poor play) and raising for a free card or value betting a big ace. Let's check out the numbers:
.
set: 7 comb, 4 if we exclude aces (as he would certainly have raised a field of 5 limpers)
twopair: A7: 6 comb, A5: 9 comb, 75: 9 comb
flush draw: C(9,2)=36 comb, 33 of which are to higher flushes
big ace: AK-AJ: 36 comb, 24 if we exclude AK (no preflop raise)
str8 draws (8-outers): 86: 12 comb, 64: 12 comb, 34: 15 comb
.
Relative percentages are (127 possible hands):
.
set or top-twopair: 10 comb, 8%, 1:2 dog
lesser twopair: 18 comb, 14%, slight dog
big ace: 24 comb, 19%, slight favorite
better flush draw: 33 comb, 26%, slight favorite
other draws: 42 comb, 33%, massive favorite
.
Even if we dismiss all str8 draws as unlikely, the bottom line is that in at least 2/3 of the cases you figure to be a favorite on the flop, you have a good chance to get top pair or a better flush draw to fold and might even win it right there, so I think your reraise makes perfect sense - only the amount of the raise might be debatable as a pot size raise commits you to the hand, so moving in might have been better play, also b/c it minimizes the risk of getting trapped between the best hand and the best draw.
.
To estimate the EV, let's assume that 2pair or better, toppair and flush draw are equally likely and that he will fold the latter two for an all-in reraise. Just to be on the safe side, let's assume that you are 1:2 dog if called
.
EV = 2/3*300+1/9*1100-2/9*800 = 144.44

[leon]

Iganatius,

this is pretty much what I was thinking. Thus I was pretty surprised when he called the flop reraise.

One more thing- since this was pot, not nolimit, I didn't have the option of pushing my whole stack in.

Regards

Leon

[sam h]

"If he repots again I can't call with what was at that point middle pair and a draw."

I think you'd be crazy to fold for 500ish more, having invested by my count $435 already and getting 3:1 or a little less on the call. What hand could he possibly have that you're more than a 3:1 dog against on that flop? You're only roughly 2:1 against if he has a set.

Which is why I don't like your flop play. It's just bizarrely inconsistent enough so that people will call with two pair. Would you really have smoothcalled the $15 bet with a set? But it's just aggressive enough that you're committing your whole stack when you could be a 2:1 dog. I think if you make a decent raise initially and then somebody comes over the top, you're in a lot better position to decide what to do and where you stand. Plus, if there is no flop raise behind you and the turn is a diamond, you could be in trouble but you've neither gained information about the possibility of another diamond draw being out there or done anything to fold something like JTd, which might not want to stand much flop heat with just a non-nut draw.

[d'Amphoux]

<font color="blue">Ok, so here I am playing a $100 NL tourney on PokerStars, browsing the past week's posts (backed up from a busy two weeks with 7 days of it at the Woods, two of which was spent rebuilding from a tough beat at PL). Then I come on this thread. I'm reading it and immediately my addrenaline starts pumping again. It is the very pot limit hand! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Leon, if I had two bullets protecting my cards, and the hand included an arguement by EP regarding a possible check gesture, then yes... it's the hand.

I will say that although it was a hard one to swallow and it took me two days to build back up, it tought me a lesson that will hopefully pay some rewards. My mistake was not evaluating the situation when you raised the pot on the flop, and then once I had, re-raising instead of just flat calling. The way the betting went, and having played you before, I had you on either an A-something for a pair, or something weaker and where you were trying to grab the pot right then and there. However, going against the Cloutier recommendation of trusting your first instincts, I got soft and ended up coaxing myself into just calling (the mistake). Then on the turn (thanks to the arguement) I get 5 minutes to revisit the situation and I make the right decision at the time, getting my money in with the best hand. The fact that the river suck-out occured is just bad luck. In the long run the same scenario would pay me off.

btw, Sincere thanks for referring to me as a "good player" and thanks for the kind words after the hand. I respect that.</font>

[leon]

Hi Michel,

yeah, that was me, and that was you... hehe.

Glad you've rebuilt. Nothing more needs to be said here, other than the next time I try to put a move on you I'll evaluate the situation for a longer period of time [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

One funny thing here is that most people I play against in the PL game at foxwoods never, EVER suspect me of making me a move. Ie, they have me pegged as "tight" but not "solid". Personally I like this. Just last night I got 2 queens to lay down on a rag flop with pocket 10's, with a little bit of representation. Of course, putting up these posts is probably hurting me in that regard [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Take care

Leon