NFL Total Wins Question

YoureToast · #1 09-01-2005, 10:58 AM

Here's what I think: I think the Eagles may or may not win 12 games (the line is at 11.5 at Pinnacle) (I think it is sligtly more likely they will win less than 12 and the money line reflects this). But I also think that if they win less than 12, there is a very good chance that they will win SIGNIFICANTLY less than 12. Therefore, with the correct odds, I'd like to bet on the Eagles winning, say, less than 9 or less than 8. Anybody know of any creative ways that I can do this?

I'll explain my reason for why I think this later (you might be able to guess) but I don't want to distract from the main question.

#2 09-01-2005, 11:13 AM

Off the top of my head, bet the Eagles under at 1 unit, bet the Giants/Cowboys/Skins over at a 1/2 unit each, and hope the AFC West doesn't rough up the latter 3 teams in interconference play.

Also, on Tradesports you can go long or short on a team's actual win totals, i.e. the Eagles are currently available to sell in the 10.5-11.0 (win) range, and you'd buy them back later in the season or at season's end for a lower number. You'd have to put up a lot of money to make decent profit on this type of wager, but it's doable. I prefer the other option.

YoureToast · #3 09-01-2005, 01:30 PM

Thanks Syg. I don't really like the first option, although I think its a thoughtful idea, due to the variables involved. I was looking at the TradesSports idea, but I can't figure out how that is supposed to work. Can you elaborate?

KaneKungFu123 · #4 09-01-2005, 02:32 PM

its pretty late to bet season wins, the sharps have already pounded these lines.

try to find out what the inital line was on Philly.

tech · #5 09-01-2005, 04:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
its pretty late to bet season wins, the sharps have already pounded these lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

Line movements in the NFL don't always mean they have been pounded by sharps. Squares have money too.

homedog · #6 09-01-2005, 03:59 PM

If you think the Eagles are gonna lose 6 or 7 games, you should bet the moneyline against them every week. That would be some nice payouts since the Eagles will usually be favored.

YoureToast · #7 09-01-2005, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you think the Eagles are gonna lose 6 or 7 games, you should bet the moneyline against them every week. That would be some nice payouts since the Eagles will usually be favored.

[/ QUOTE ]

That plan doesn't accomplish what I want. By the time they take their fall, if they take their fall, the moneylines will all be adjusted.

So far, Sygamel's first option is the best.