Late Late Stage of Party 30+3

[Dave D]

Party 30+3

This hand just happened. About 30 left. I know I should have raised 8s there, but there actually has been a fair amount of limpers seeing flops so I thought it was better (especially w/ my position) to hope for a set.

Table should see me as being really tight, I've barely played anything.

***** Hand History for Game 2598769608 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:15159629 Level:15 Blinds (1500/3000) - Friday, August 26, 00:09:38 EDT 2005
Table Multi-Table(436664) Table #3 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: icecubing ( $20490 )
Seat 2: lws1947 ( $50176 )
Seat 4: dogling ( $59961 )
Seat 6: FourOfaCline ( $10799 )
Seat 7: shadyAAmill ( $63010 )
Seat 9: Flospop ( $8600 )
Seat 10: Terminater81 ( $70579 )
Seat 3: spech99 ( $31364 )
Seat 5: LaredoProud ( $22612 )
Seat 8: LluckyLlama ( $40566 )
Trny:15159629 Level:15
Blinds (1500/3000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to dogling [ 8s 8c ]
spech99 folds.
dogling calls [3000].
LaredoProud folds.
FourOfaCline folds.
shadyAAmill raises [7000].
LluckyLlama folds.
Flospop folds.
Terminater81 folds.
icecubing folds.
lws1947 folds.
dogling calls [4000].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, Qc, 5c ]
dogling checks.
shadyAAmill checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2c ]
dogling bets [9000].
shadyAAmill calls [9000].
** Dealing River ** [ 6c ]

Should I have bet the river? I felt like he could be slow playing something, but I think in retrospect I should have value bet the river.

[Pasterbator]

Value bet the river with an 8 high flush? I dont buy it. I check/call a small bet. I think betting that river is a leak.

[Jurollo]

You need to committ too much of your stack to make a reasonable semi bluff here so I check/call a reasonable bet. However, be prepared that he could easily bluff you here after you show weakness and be prepared to fold and move on. you are 16K in, dont compound it with a big bet on the river.
~Justin

[CardSharpCook]

Yeah, I value bet my 8 high flush here. Make it nice and small, maybe another 9K. There is just too much that he has to call with (to keep me honest)

[Pasterbator]

Then i assume you are betting your 8 high flush and folding to a raise? I dont know. Maybe this is another problem with my game, but i'd prefer a check/call line.

[Jurollo]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I value bet my 8 high flush here. Make it nice and small, maybe another 9K. There is just too much that he has to call with (to keep me honest)

[/ QUOTE ]
CSC,
question about your line here.

Details:
Seat 4: dogling ( $59961 )
Seat 7: shadyAAmill ( $63010 )

shady raises to 7K pf.
9K each on river, shady caller, dog raiser

pot is 36500 by my count.

Both in for T16K about 25-27% of their stack respectively.

Now a 9K bet puts Dog in for almost half his stack whereas he is now facing a decent possibility of getting raised out of it. Doesn't check/calling a value bet on the other end make more sense, with the opportunity to showdown for free, anything you beat he is likely folding (non clubs) but most of what beats you is reraising. I just dont think that is the profitable line in the long run.
~Justin

[Lloyd]

I'm not sure if it's a blocking bet or a value bet but I'd definitely bet here. Something around 1/3 of the pot should be sufficient. He might call even without a flush and will only raise if he has the nut flush or a boat. If he raises we can safely fold. I think that's a better way of seeing a showdown then hoping he only makes a small bet. But I guess it depends on my read of the villain. If he's an aggressive player I think a blocking bet is best. If he's passive I guess you could check.

[Jurollo]

Ok, I overlooked that Dave bet out on the turn when the 3rd club hit. This does give him a little leverage to play the club on the river with a blocking bet, however, is 9K enough? That is the question I have, it seems as if that might be asking to get raised because it looks weak, I would at least increase my bet from the turn if I am making this move.
~Justin

[Lloyd]

The difficult part of this hand is the pair on the board. The villain *can* raise the river representing a boat but I think that's a pretty gutsy move. If you had the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here how much would you bet on the river to extract maximum value. You'd certainly not bet enough that a smaller flush won't call. So I think around 9k should be sufficient. If we get raised we've been beaten or outplayed but if it's because we've been outplayed I think we'd be facing a pretty big bet on the river anyway.

[Jurollo]

[ QUOTE ]
The difficult part of this hand is the pair on the board. The villain *can* raise the river representing a boat but I think that's a pretty gutsy move. If you had the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here how much would you bet on the river to extract maximum value. You'd certainly not bet enough that a smaller flush won't call. So I think around 9k should be sufficient. If we get raised we've been beaten or outplayed but if it's because we've been outplayed I think we'd be facing a pretty big bet on the river anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the insight here Lloyd, nice explanation as well.
~Justin