endless nl swing

[conslice]

is it possible for a NL swing to just last forever. like i mean that some players destined course of hands that they will play will just be strings of bad beats or hands that are very hard to get away from withotu losing alot of or all of your stack or 2nd nut and 3rd ntu hands up against the nuts, while any big hands hit make no money, is this especialy true for tight players? has anyone seen this happen were a person just looses endlessly until there bankroll is completly gone and they are just sick of loosing and quit even tho they KNOW and others know they are winning players. how long can a down swing like that go for as a tme period or a number of hands ( im looking for reassurance that this is impossible and that a winning player will always win).... eventually

[Python49]

if you truly believe you're a winning player, get 75k+ hands in and you should be ok.

[tripdad]

my understanding is that a no limit player will reach his "true" win rate in far fewer hands than a limit player will. in other words, it is somewhat difficult for a true winning player to consistantly lose at no limit.

if this hyothetical player is you, i suggest reevaluating your game.

cheers!

[Equal]

Is "loosing/looses" the word of the day or something? I've seen it used by 3 different posters today.

[The_Bends]

Although theoretically it is perfectly possible for a winning NL player to lose every hand he ever plays. The chances just become increasingly unlikely with each extra hand he plays. Obviously this also works the other way and the worst playe could win every hand. this is because it is impossible to play a NLholdem hand in a way that gives you a 100% chance of winning or a 0% chance of winning.

[DrFeelgoodRC]

[ QUOTE ]

if this hyothetical player is you, i suggest reevaluating your game.

cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]


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[mmmmmbrother]

if anyone played forever they would hit a -infinity bb downswing.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
if anyone played forever they would hit a -infinity bb downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not true

[GrandmaStabone]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if anyone played forever they would hit a -infinity bb downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not true

[/ QUOTE ]

[mmmmmbrother]

why not.
your bankroll graphed over time is basicly a line with slope=true winrate, but many many rises and falls du to variance, the amount of rise or fall is random and can be placed on a bell curve in terms of probablility.
i.e. a 5bb downswing is very likely whilst a 250bb downswing only happens once in a while.

but if you played for an infinite amount of time you would get a swing of infinity big bets. not that you wouldnt go bust before this happens