sabermetrics

eternalnewbie · #1 07-19-2005, 03:53 PM

Just wondering if anyone makes extensive use of sabermetrics in voting baseball? I've been getting into sabermetrics and some of this stuff seems like it would be pretty useful in betting baseball (which I don't currently do).

Just curious.

eternalnewbie · #2 07-19-2005, 06:26 PM

whoops - I obviously meant betting basebally instead of voting baseball

tech · #3 07-20-2005, 01:49 AM

Help us out bro ... what is sabermetrics? Warning: If it's spam, it will be deleted. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

mosquito · #4 07-20-2005, 02:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Help us out bro ... what is sabermetrics? Warning: If it's spam, it will be deleted. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously you Jopke.

SABR (society of american baseball research)

sabermetrics = statistical tools/analysis of baseball.

Think Moneyball.

tech · #5 07-20-2005, 03:00 AM

So what is the difference between sabermetrics and plain old statistical analysis? I don't use a lot of hard-core statistical analysis in my baseball betting, but I would be curious to learn about it.

whipsaw · #6 07-20-2005, 08:21 AM

Sabermetrics is pretty much the same as statistical analysis, except it gives extra weight to specific categories (just like you do, I presume).

Sabermetrics Overview

mrbaseball · #7 07-20-2005, 08:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Meaningless statistics should be
ignored or replaced

[/ QUOTE ]

Sabermetricians don't put a lot of stock into Wins or team and/or pitchers records. I do! These include many of the intangibles that will never be revealed through statistics. A sabermetrician can probably argue convincingly that the Nationals or White Sox or Orioles shouldn't be doing as well as they are this season. But too much fade on these kind of teams is pure bankroll suicide.

I like sabermertrics but haven't spent as much time learning about them as I should. Since I am primarily a fan and a bettor typical statistics give me all I need to know to be profitable and I fear that getting to obscure with the numbers will cloud my judgements.

eternalnewbie · #8 07-20-2005, 11:05 AM

Sorry for the ambiguous post -

I was just wondering if anyone uses any of the statistics that they've developed. They're doing some pretty interesting stuff. The goal is to take everything that a player contributes and convert it into a common denominator - runs.

The big difference between this and what I would call ordinary statistical analysis is that they're using different stats. For example, they don't make much use of things like BA or ERA because there aren't statistically significant correlations between a player's BA or ERA from one year to tne next.

Also, it is true that they don't take into account a lot of intangibles. I think their point though is that they don't do that because statistics aren't that helpful for that sort of thing. Instead, the idea is to gain as much statistical knowledge from the stats that do exist as possible.

Sorry if this post was way out of left field - I've been thinking about possibly getting into sports betting and was wondering if anyone was using this.

hobbsmann · #9 07-20-2005, 06:35 PM

take a look at www.baseballprospectus.com they have some free content that might help you get a grasp of what they do. These guys are pretty much in the same camp as Bease, Epstein, Depodesta, and JP Richardi in that they are working towards develping unbiased stats so that accurate comparisions can be made between players on all 30 teams.

A simple example: the people at BP have come up with a stat called EqBA (equivalent batting average) what factors in park affects when calculation batting averages. This park factor is essential >1 for a place like coors field (hitters park) and <1 for a place like dodgers stadium (pitchers park). Once a park factor is determined (for now lets just assume these are correct for simplicities sake) EqBA is ~BA/pf*#atpark where (pf is park factor, #atpark is the number of games played at that park, and BA is batting average). This is one of the simpler metrics they use, but it is a useful tool to explain the goal of sabermetrics in general: to better quantify value in baseball.

hope that made sense.

mosquito · #10 07-20-2005, 10:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
take a look at www.baseballprospectus.com they have some free content that might help you get a grasp of what they do. These guys are pretty much in the same camp as Bease, Epstein, Depodesta, and JP Richardi in that they are working towards develping unbiased stats so that accurate comparisions can be made between players on all 30 teams.

A simple example: the people at BP have come up with a stat called EqBA (equivalent batting average) what factors in park affects when calculation batting averages. This park factor is essential >1 for a place like coors field (hitters park) and <1 for a place like dodgers stadium (pitchers park). Once a park factor is determined (for now lets just assume these are correct for simplicities sake) EqBA is ~BA/pf*#atpark where (pf is park factor, #atpark is the number of games played at that park, and BA is batting average). This is one of the simpler metrics they use, but it is a useful tool to explain the goal of sabermetrics in general: to better quantify value in baseball.

hope that made sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, baseball prospectus has the best "at your fingertips"
type of stats and analysis.

Some of the Major Leauge clubs now have proprietary things
on defensive ratings, and so on, that would be killer to
get ahold of.