Implied odds and pot equity confusion

[IIAce]

I understand the basic concenpts but the problems I'm having is with two more streets to come.

For example if I have 5 outs on the flop (8.2-1) and only getting 5-1 pot odds. I can count on getting a few more bets(say 4) from the turn and river if I get my hand on the turn (9-1 pot odds). The problem is that this way doesn't account for the bets I will have to call on the turn if I DON'T make my hand. So actually I won't be getting 9-1 pot odds because I'll have to pay a few more bets on the turn if I miss.

Same thing with pot equity. SSHE gives an example where you should raise the flop with a nut flush draw when 4 other people are in the pot. It says that you will make your flush by the river 35% of the time and you're only putting in 20% of the money (assuming people don't fold) so the more money in the pot the better. What if you miss your flush by the turn? Now you're only gonna make it 19% of the time by the river...does that mean the raising stops and you go in check/call mode?

[Matador225]

I am not 100% on this but I think SSHE still advocates raising even when you miss on the turn (in some situations). Doesn't make complete sense to me but I think for some hands when you have overcards as well as a flush draw you want to force out as many people with overcards so that even if you miss the flush but spike one of your cards you will have the best hand. Once again I could have misinterpreted this chapter of SSHE but thats what I took it to mean.

Hope I helped,
Jack

[mute]

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The problem is that this way doesn't account for the bets I will have to call on the turn if I DON'T make my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't make your hand on the turn, then you don't have to call. Your odds on the flop only tells you, whether to see the turn or not. On the turn you reevaluate, and see if you have odds to see the river. The implied odds are the extra bets you gain if you hit the turn.

[IIAce]

Yes exactly. But see now, you can't count the bets you will make on the river as implied odds to affect your flop decision since you really don't know if you will get them or not. Same with the pot equity...you can't count 35% for a flush draw on the flop..you should only count 19% and take implied odds/pot equity card by card.

In my first example where I have 5 outs, I said I could get 4 more small bets on the turn and river to give me 9-1 pot odds&implied odds so I can call but actually this can't be true since I can only count the bets I'll be able to get on the turn. See what I'm saying here?

[fire_fly]

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you can't count 35% for a flush draw on the flop..you should only count 19% and take implied odds/pot equity card by card.

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no no no.

Assuming we are talking about limit poker here, if you have a flush draw on the flop, you will pretty much ALWAYS have enough outs to see the river. This means you would pretty much never fold the turn (unless it double pairs the board, or something equally crappy.)

So because you are DEFINATELY seeing the river, you DO have a full 35% equity, even from the flop.

There are some rare exceptions to this (ex tiny pot, 3 handed, checked through on flop, facing a raise on turn, but even then you may have enough outs to chase.)

Hope this helps.

[IIAce]

Yes I understand. Folding isn't an option but the question is whether to call or to raise. In other words, what I'm saying is: on the flop with a flush draw (you hit 35% by the river) you want to get as much money in the pot as possible (according to SSHE) if more 2 other people are in (33.33%). Say 10 people are in so you're only contributing 10% and you're going to get your flush 35% so you make money and want the pot to be as big as possible. If you miss the turn, you want to raise if more than 4 people are in because you'll make your flush about 20% of the time and you are contributing less than 20% (with more than 4 people in) so you end up making more money. Right?

What I'm not understanding is the 35% on the flop part...shouldn't it be 19% instead because you're only going card by card here.

[Hosayif]

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If you miss the turn, you want to raise if more than 4 people are in because you'll make your flush about 20% of the time and you are contributing less than 20% (with more than 4 people in) so you end up making more money. Right?

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If the odds were exactly 20% and you were guarunteed to be puttin gin exactly 20% of the pot, would raising be equally profitable as calling, and if so would it increase variance or decrease or not affect it?