3/6 pair+flush against probable set....action?

[AZK]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP1 ($714.48)
<font color="#C00000">MP2 ($327.7)</font>
MP3 ($600)
CO ($611.2)
Button ($310.3)
SB ($638.95)
BB ($203)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($725.3)</font>
<font color="#C00000">UTG+1 ($513.7)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
Hero calls $6, UTG+1 calls $6, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $12</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $9, BB calls $6, Hero calls $6, UTG+1 calls $6.

Flop: ($60) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $100</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero...


I was intending to check-raise MP2 all in because he is a total moron and I'm pretty sure I'm either ahead or coinflipping. UTG+1 has been quiet and is tight, I would say I am 80% certain that he has a set, most likely 77 since he would have raised KK/JJ preflop. If I call MP2's $100, UTG will most likely reraise, if he doesn't, I will face an uncomfortable bet on the turn assuming I don't hit. One way or another, mp2's stack is going all in, be it now or the next street, I just know it...

If MP2 has a set, than I'm 60/40ish, which if all the money goes in, mp2 gives me a nice overlay, is this bad thinking?

What's my move?

[Big_Jim]

Fold.

You say MP2 is bad... but what hands is he calling with here?
I'll assume a range for a total donk:
Since he was PF raiser, we also have to account for good hands, assuming he leads with them

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Board: Kh Js 7h
Hand 1: 31.5449 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { QhJh }
Hand 2: 60.0552 % [ 00.60 00.00 ] { 7s7d }
Hand 3: 08.3999 % [ 00.08 00.00 ] { AA-77, AKs, AJs, KQs-KTs, QJs, JTs, AJo, KQo-KTo, QJo }

You're barely getting 2-1 on your money, and you have no fold equity.

Also... this assumes that MP2 WILL call, if he doesn't...
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Board: Kh Js 7h
Hand 1: 31.9192 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { QhJh }
Hand 2: 68.0808 % [ 00.68 00.00 ] { 7s7d }

With 1-1 pot odds.

If you can get to a turn card for only $100 (unlikely if he has a set), or he doesn't have 777, then these numbers get a lot prettier.

Not to mention... you're only in the pot for $12.

[Rotating Rabbit]

Surely this is a routine fold?

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
If MP2 has a set, than I'm 60/40ish, which if all the money goes in, mp2 gives me a nice overlay, is this bad thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was with you until here. Where does 60/40 come from?

[AZK]

By 60/40 I really meant 70/30...

[iceman5]

I fold also, but Im not crazy about QJs UTG mainly because of this problem of not being able to play the flush draw alot of times.