6-30 Baseball Early Game (WAS-PITT)

[MHoydilla]

I like Wash -145 vrs Pitt, E LOAIZA (WAS) has been great at home with a 2.08 ERA over 48 IP and K WELLS (Pitt) has pitched poorly on the road 5.5 ERA especially of late. Was is 28-10 at home and Pitt is 17-23 on the road. I think this line should be -190/-200, so I took Was. Anyone have any thoughts.

[heropretend]

gotta love the home team to sweep. gl

[Futility]

--Washington is going for the sweep. I believe that teams +.550 are about 65% To Sweep At Home in the last game of a series. This is about right for Washington, which is 4-2 in closing out the sweep at home.
--Washington wins 74% of its home games
--Washington is 18-6 in June
--Loaiza has held teams with similar records in check at home (Oakland, Atlanta, Toronto)
--Wells has similar home/away splits (bad on the road), although his ERA is inflated because of 3 road starts against NYY, BOS, and STL. Hopefully WAS continues the trend of good teams beating up Wells on the road.
-- ML is -144, requiring a win % greater than 68% to be +EV.

If those factors lead you to believe WAS has a >68% chance to win, take it and run.

[mrbaseball]

-145 looks about fair value to me until you factor the goodness of Loaiza at home and the badness of Wells on the road. This probably shifts a bit of value your direction. Loaiza historically starts sucking around this point in the season though. He's usually hot in April and May and blows up in the summer. However 2 of his last 3 starts have been very good and the other very bad. I think this park suits him though and Pitt isn't all that much of an offensive threat so you probably get some edge here. I don't like laying this much wood though unless it really jumps off the page at me and this one doesn't. Good luck though!

[Futility]

My bad, I realized that I stopped halfway through my math. The %chance to win for that bet to be +EV is only 59-60%. Btw, congrats to all who made plays on WAS.