Level 6 - short stacked

Scuba Chuck · #1 05-08-2005, 01:42 AM

On the next hand, the blinds increase. I was thinking about that hand probability post done a while back. I think it said something like K9 is the best value hand within a 5 hand period.

I'm torn on this decision to play this hand here. The fact that villain had been quite active made me feel better about it at the table.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter

MP (t2530)
Hero (t655)
SB (t1200)
BB (t1465)
UTG (t2150)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to t600, Hero raises to t655 (All-In), 2 folds, MP calls t55.

Flop: (t1610) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1610) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1610) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1610

Logik · #2 05-08-2005, 01:52 AM

This was your only course of action. Next hand blinds increase to t400 which is all of your stack, basically. You're on the button, five handed.

This hand: Blind t200, you invested t0 with K9o
Next hand: Blind t400, you invested t0 with a random hand
Next hand: Blind t400, you invested t0 with a random hand
Next hand: Blind t400, you're all in with a random hand

I would take the K9 opportunity here, because you only realistically have two or three more hands to look at. You have to expect this to be the best hand that you'll see in the next couple hands, so I push here.

I took my deck of cards and made five sets of three random hands. Far from statistical, but just to give you an idea.

Set 1:
2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Set 2:
J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Set 3:
Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Other than the possible 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], the K9o is better than these other hands. Good push.

Seadood228 · #3 05-08-2005, 02:02 AM

Plus you have a little protection from MP's raise, which will discourage others from calling. I also think MP does not need a great hand to be making this raise. Push and pray you have live cards.

Scuba Chuck · #4 05-08-2005, 02:03 AM

Logik, I think your thought process is good. You might be interested in this essay.

Push or Wait?

ilya · #5 05-08-2005, 02:15 AM

Might as well flat-call....

Scuba Chuck · #6 05-08-2005, 02:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Might as well flat-call....

[/ QUOTE ]

I had considered that. If I was in a different position, I might have done that. I like the "Allin" better here. I'm such a sucker sometimes, but I want to do everything possible to limit this to just the two of us. If I raise, villain can reraise yet.

ilya · #7 05-08-2005, 02:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If I raise, villain can reraise yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah good point, I'd forgotten about that.