Bugstud and I play a hand -- WSOP sat

[Tyler Durden]

He and I are the only MTTers left who haven't qualified so it's not surprising that we'd end up at the same table.

It's a Step 3 qualifier on Party. Six steps altogether. We're playing 5 handed at the moment. Blinding at 150/300.
The top three move on to Step 4, and 4th place gets a replay of Step 3. 5th place has to go back to Step 2.

Stacks are:

UTG (Bugstud) t2730
MP t910
Button t1945
SB (me) t1615
BB t2800

So Bugstud moves all in for 9x. It's folded to me in the SB w/ JJ. He has me covered. When figuring in the strategery involved, what's my play? I really want at least a replay here.

What range do you put him on?

thanks much.

[sxz18]

In tournaments where the top three pay the same amount, it's smart to get aggressive when there are only five or four people left because people tend to make tight folds. His UTG push with a healthy stack feels like he has a mediocre hand at best. It could be anywhere from 99-55 or AJo, ATs, ATo. I really don't see him doing this with a pair higher than JJ nor do I see him doing this with AK, AQ. I would call and not allow him to push you around. If you win, you have a solid amount of chips to put you in the top three for sure.

EDIT: After further review, I think this is a 95% call. At first I didn't notice the other chip stacks but now that I do, I think you definetely need to double up and this is your best shot. Five handed play moves the blinds around very quickly and JJ is probably the best hand you'll see within the next 5-6 rounds. If you double through, you put pressure on the lower two stacks to gamble as well to keep themselves alive.

[MSUcougar]

I think you've got him beat here a LARGE majority of the time... probably even dominated as opposed to coinflip/small favorite... he probably has Ax or a PP of some kind...

whether it's *correct* to call here given the payout structure is a whole other can of worms however... how easy would it be to steal in later hands if you folded?

I think I make the call...

[Jax_Grinder]

I am going to buck the trend and advocate a fold.

First, MP is 1 away from the BB for 1/3 of his stack and is not likely to survive here. Rather then asking only whether JJ is good against Bug, I also look at whether the SS is likely to get a hand in the next 2 or 3 hands. History says the odds are against that.

Also, with this payout structure, isn't it correct to WAY ratchet down you gap calls and WAY open up your gap pushes? JJ is at the periphery of the call range for me in this case and, as your goal is to survive one more player (at least) why risk it here when the blinds are putting more pressure on MP and the button than you?

I also think Bug is crafty enough to know that his push looks suspicious at this stage and therefore might do it with AK/AQ or big pair to induce the call.

In the end, the chance of one of the others not busting out AND you having no steal opp. in the next 2 or 3 rounds is pretty slim.

I fold, but then again, maybe I am just looking for reasons to do so.

[slickpoppa]

How much is each step worth?

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]


I also think Bug is crafty enough to know that his push looks suspicious at this stage and therefore might do it with AK/AQ or big pair to induce the call.



[/ QUOTE ]


Agreed.

Given the payout structure and relative chip stacks, I see no reason for him to put him self in a position where if called he's likely racing (small to mid pp) or dominated (AJ/AT). I'm guessing he has the goods here.

on Edit: tho I admit, in the heat of battle I prob call.

Edit #2: my answer only applies with him acting first. he tries this crap from the button and it's on.

[CieloAzor]

Uh, if you really just want to ensure a replay, you can fold. In the interesting of moving on to Step 4 however, I call.

[Wes ManTooth]

It takes MP, with about 900 just one hand to double up or steal blinds to be back in. I would call. I have him on Ax I think his hand A8 A9 or A10.

[bugstud]

for the record I'm pushing with premiums here too, right or wrong.

[Jax_Grinder]

I win.