Took a shot at 15. How about this one? AKo

[StacysMom]

So I decided to take a random shot at 15 as I plan on moving up relatively soon. How do you like it up to here?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (17 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

Thanks,

StacysMom

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

I don't like the turn bet. I think it's a fairly standard check...

John Feeney talks about bad plays good players make such as semi-bluffing into calling stations. I think this is a perfect example of that.

Also, too often you will get c/r'd be be forced to call 1 extra bet.

I think you are behind often enough here to check instead of betting into a field of 3.

-Craig

[Michael Emery]

Any stats or reads on UTG? Its kinda scary when he limp-reraises all of you in that position. Given that against a lot of players I might be expecting to be up against something like rockets or cowboys, I'm not capping preflop. I suppose there's a merit to capping if you believe that one or both callers behind you will fold. I just dont think that will uaually be the case as they have already put in two bets. As for the turn, the obvious dilemma of what to do with AK unimproved. Given the size of the pot here (which is huge) I'd go ahead and bet. In most situations I'd love to see a free card but this pots so big I feel its worth another bet.

Mike Emery

[StacysMom]

i thought ihad some fold equity vs a 5 or 6. Also with 2 ppl checking to me, I think I may take this pot down here.

[NickRegino]

I would strongly consider betting on the turn with the pot so big, also if I can recall you should hit the A or K about 30% of the time by the river. If you dont get either you could fold out on the river, but then again I'm only a 1/2 player and I don't know much but this is the way I play it at that limit.

[BradL]

Turn bet is pretty bad, a checkraised puts you in a really terrible spot given the size of the pot.

-Brad

[BradL]

[ QUOTE ]
if I can recall you should hit the A or K about 30% of the time by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm... there is one card unseen and hero has at best six outs, quite possibly far fewer (or none at all); best case scenerio hero has an ~13% chance to improve on the river.

Edited to change the word fewerer to fewer.

-Brad

[Michael Emery]

[ QUOTE ]
also if I can recall you should hit the A or K about 30% of the time by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post Nick. Your right, just a little confused. You'll hit an Ace or a King overall approximately 1/3 of the time. Thats what you were thinking of. This includes the flop, turn, and river together. On the river your an approx. 6.5 to 1 dog to catch a ace or a king.

Mike Emery

[Emmitt2222]

If they aren't calling stations and you do have some folding equity like you said you thought you did then I think that is a standard turn bet, but if you up against calling stations then thats a check thru.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

I was sort of surprised by how many people like the bet...I'd like to hear some more opinions if anyone has 'em.