Cap the river?

TMFS9 · #1 03-24-2005, 11:26 PM

The main question is the river, I really don't feel any other street is debatable, but feel free if you disagree with any other part of the hand. Both players in the hand were at the table since i've been there ~75 hands. The sb was 55/12 and pretty passive postflop, with one quirky quality it seemed like he prefered to cold call rather than limp. He had cold called every single one of my raises (12-15) except for one, even showed down J2o after cold calling preflop. MP in this hand was at 38/0 and showed down QQ on a A K x x x board without raising preflop, postflop he was still passive and loved to slowplay but would take stabs at pots if no one bet. On the river it when I got 3 bet I put him on either 89, 8x, or QT, and wouldn't of raised if SB wouldn't of called the first time and felt pretty confident that he would call 2 more bets back to him.

Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP bets, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG folds, MP 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls, MP calls.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

naphand · #2 03-25-2005, 07:07 AM

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I really don't feel any other street is debatable

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You are joking?

Your PT figures are not what yconcerns pre-flop action and yet you want to know about the River! Do you think it is sound logic to extrapolate PT PF data to the River? Is that what you are doing? After 75 hands you have made no observations about what these guys call with? check on the Turn with? raise with?

PS
This is a very easy cap on the River. You gave the reason yourself, but there is some simple math you could add which make it clear (hint: how often are you good here?).

naphand · #3 03-25-2005, 07:46 AM

Man I hate the timeout on the edit function, especially when it edits out what you say as well.

Hell, I might as well re-do the whole thing... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

You are joking?

Your PT figures are not what you think they are, none of these players have numbers this discrete. It is your interpretation of those numbers that matters (based on what you have seen) not the numbers. <yawn> Almost all the information you give here concerns pre-flop action and yet you want to know about the River! Do you think it is sound logic to extrapolate PT PF data to the River? Is that what you are doing? After 75 hands you have made no observations about what these guys call with? check on the Turn with? raise with?

PS
This is a very easy cap on the River. You gave the reason yourself, but there is some simple math you could add which make it clear (hint: how often are you good here?).

pheasant tail (no 18) · #4 03-25-2005, 07:49 AM

w/ 2 calling all those raises I think you are better off in long run by capping. I would not 4-bet if a 5th was possible though. You're probably beat, but if you are best >25%, you make money on raise.

PS. Call PF (your hand is not so strong and as the results of you flop bet suggest--there is no tactical advantage gained against this crowd) and check flop. Your check on the turn was good though.

Danenania · #5 03-25-2005, 07:50 AM

I'm not sure I agree the river cap is so easy. Mostly because I don't think it's very likely the SB will call another 2 bets, even though he did in the hand. Also I see nothing wrong with PF, flop, or turn.

naphand · #6 03-25-2005, 11:51 AM

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pretty confident that he would call 2 more bets back to him.

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If player here reads it is likely, then that is the read we have.

Raising PF is plenty debateable, the flop will be multi-way, you do not have a hand you can take to SD unimproved. You have two limpers but limping hands include KT, QJ, Ax so you could easily be behind. You need help from the flop, the blinds are not really a concern as they are unlikely to have a better Q or T, so we are not worried if they come along, esp. when flopping a big draw. It is debateable, for sure.

Flop bet achieves NOTHING. There is a snowflake in hell's chance of folding out the field, Hero has precisely no hand bar weak overcards (subject to re-draws) and a backdoor on a paired board. In this case the Turn brings a weak draw and Hero gets to take the free card, and hits. Most of the time that flop bet gets you nowhere. How many cards help Hero? 6 pair outs plus 4 to the ISD, so with 3 callers Hero is not getting value on his bet and won't clear the field. Why is the flop bet good again? I don't recall your reasoning.

TMFS9 · #7 03-25-2005, 02:58 PM

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You are joking?

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No, not really. Why don't you run a little pokerstove simulation on QTs versus 2 loose limpers and a loose cold calling SB. You definitely have more than your fair share of equity, and correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that what short handed poker is about, pushing edges.

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so you could easily be behind

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You really have a flawed thought process about preflop limit play.

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the blinds are not really a concern as they are unlikely to have a better Q or T, so we are not worried if they come along,

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Again a flawed thought process here, folding out the blinds is one reason to raise this, the blinds fold with 1.33 sbs in dead money and your EV jumps greatly.

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Flop bet achieves NOTHING

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When the flop gets checks to me I have two overcards, a backdoor flush draw, and a weak backdoor straight draw, also I would love to fold out something like Ax, Kx and at the same time hopefully get to the river for one sb in a good sized pot. Instead of debating betting the flop, what is a typical sequence of not betting the flop. 9 times out of 10 if you don't bet the flop you will be facing a turn bet from a field of 4, not something that I really want to have to face if I can help it.

In regards to the PT stats, I really haven't been following the pissing and moaning going on around here lately about following these, and I REALLY don't want to get into one here. At the time this was the only table I was playing as I was about to leave, I felt comfortable with my postflop reads on them, some of which I did give in the original post. I mentioned all of the PT stats off of the top of my head hours later and couldn't remember their postflop aggression factors so I didn't include them. I'm pretty sure both had a AF of ~1. As far as their preflop numbers it gives you a good clue in what they could be limping/calling with and not using this clue is foolish. While after ~75 hands these numbers certainly are rigid, but again give you a clue. About the extrapolating of preflop #'s to the river, well it's kind of hard to put them on a hand at the river if you don't pay attention what they could have a the beginning (you do know that their hand doesn't change throughout the hand right [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Danenania · #8 03-25-2005, 04:40 PM

I did notice that the poster was fairly confident the SB would call 2 more, but I dispute that confidence. After all that checking then calling 2 on the river, it looks a lot like SB picked up a weak pair of J's to me that usually isn't calling another 2 bets.

PF is a clear raise for value and positional leverage. This hand thrives multi-way. The flop bet does indeed achieve something if it gets a lone J, K, or A to fold thereby increasing your chances of winning with a pair of T's or Q's. It may also get you a free turn card. "Most of the time the flop bet gets you nowhere" is not the way to think about poker. We don't deal of in "most of the times", we deal in "enough of the times".

TMFS9 · #9 03-25-2005, 04:52 PM

Pretty confident probably wasnt the right wording, But I felt after calling the original 2 bets to him i felt he would call >~60% of the time. An indication of his looseness he tabled Q9o.

naphand · #10 03-25-2005, 06:25 PM

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we deal in "enough of the times".

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Perhaps then, you would be so gracious as to tell us what you think "enough" means.