Who makes this call, 99 UTG

[tipperdog]

From tonight's Party $55. 1,100 players, about 275 left. I've been shortstacked for some time and have pushed all-in several times without being called. 3 hands ago, I doubled up on a bad beat, A4 vs. A7--the first hand I've shown down in a while. I now have about T2,300. Blinds are 100/200.

I am UTG with 99 and raise to 650. The table big stack in MP reraises the exact amount of my remaining stack. The MP chip leader is not an aggressive player; he's just picked up great hands at the right times.

The button reraises all-in, about T7,000. The button has been very aggressive, stealing and restealing a lot. The blinds fold.

What's my play?

[Frontin]

Wow, tough call...you'd be getting 3 to 1 on your remaining 1700, am I right?.

The bigstack raise to just your stack makes me think he's got AK-AJo or mid pair and wants to get you heads up..
The button I'm guessing is trying to steal with Axs.

I'd call.. if the MP folds you'd be getting 3:1 on your 99 vs any hand.

..I'm a new MTT player though. What happened?

[Ichi]

It is a tough call. I don't agree that the button is just trying to steal unless he is real aggressive and loose. He is re-raising your UTG raise and a re-raise by the chip leader. I would put one of them on AK but it seems more likely one of them has KK or AA. They have to give you credit for a hand. If it was just the button then I call but with both as much as I would hate it I would fold.

[2005]

I fold here, unless the button is a complete maniac you are a 4-1 dog heads up against him and in a 3 way pot it's just as bad.... let's say big stack has KQ and button has JJ...

orsepokenum -h 9s 9c - jh jd - kd qc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9c 255092 18.61 1111599 81.09 4063 0.30 0.187
Jd Jh 614693 44.84 751998 54.86 4063 0.30 0.449
Qc Kd 496906 36.25 869785 63.45 4063 0.30 0.363

[Rushmore]

Fold here, because you're almost certainly a 4-1 dog.

I would also endeavor to avoid putting myself to such difficult decisions. Limping utg for 1/4 of your chips with 99 might not be the best play in the world. You've got about 11 bb's. You're about to leave yourself with about 6 if you muck and then go through the blinds.

Maybe we could make an argument for push or fold?

[2005]

Rush, I think you're misreading the post. Hero brought it in for 650 UTG w/ blinds of 1/2.

I think 2300 is too many chips to be in push or fold mode, so I think limping would be ok, I would also be ok with making it 500 and folding to a single raise. I find that small raises like this against the average online tourney table will win the blinds with the same frequency as a 3x raise.

GG

[Rushmore]

No, I didn't misread it.

I don't like to think of 11.5 bb's as push or fold territory either, but this particular situation might be very close, as he's putting in 28% of his chips utg with a very real possibility of being put to exactly the decision we're discussing here.

As I say, if he mucks and then whiffs through the blinds, he's left with about SIX bb's.

Blecch, right?

EDIT: Rereading your post, the idea of a smaller raise utg and mucking to a reraise is at least in the ballpark, IMO. I am not sure if I agree with your assessment about its being just as effective in picking up the blinds, but at least we're talking about holding on to enough chips to have a little play left, so I can't say I hate it.

[2005]

OK, so the way I read it, we're agreeing, but the best play is still not completely clear. I think probably either the limp and fold or the small raise and fold are right. Pushing I think is bad b/c you're risking your whole tournament to pick up a small amount of chips and if you get called you're most likely in really bad shape, or if you're lucky, it's a coin flip.

This is why I hate having these almost desperate, but not quite stacks, the range of plays you have is so limited.

Gavin

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, so the way I read it, we're agreeing, but the best play is still not completely clear. I think probably either the limp and fold or the small raise and fold are right. Pushing I think is bad b/c you're risking your whole tournament to pick up a small amount of chips and if you get called you're most likely in really bad shape, or if you're lucky, it's a coin flip.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, if the table has been playing aggressively, and there is little chance of an unraised pot, folding would need to be an option, right?

Maybe this furthers the argumanet for the small raise, in that bigger hands might be induced to just call along for deceptive purposes, and you at least get your chance to spike.

This, as opposed to the 3.5 bb raise, which puts more in the middle for him to try to take down with a reraise.

Or are we approaching overthinking it?

It is, after all, just a pair of nines under the gun. Maybe riding out the blinds and trying to double up over the next eight hands makes more sense.

[2005]

I guess folding does need to be an option. I think maybe it is the best one. I don't really like the limp/fold line b/c it seems too weak to me. If you're gonna limp and fold to a raise, why not just fold from the start.

I rank my choices from best to worst like this:

1. Small raise and fold to a re-raise
2. Fold
3. Limp and fold to a raise
4/5. Push/3.5BB raise and fold