$60-$120 Hand

[Jim Brier]

I am in a 9-handed, $60-$120 game at the Bellagio. I am in the cutoff seat with the Ah-Qd. A very loose, aggressive player opens with a raise sitting on my immediate right. I 3-bet because I think my hand is best and I want to isolate this guy. The button and the small blind fold. The big blind calls. The big blind is Mark Gregorich, a top Omaha 8 or better player and assistant editor for CardPlayer magazine. My impression of Mark is that he is a very solid player. His call of two raises, even from his big blind, greatly concerns me. The loose player calls. There is $580 in the pot and three players. The flop is: Ad-Jd-6d, giving me top pair, excellent kicker with the second nut-flush draw. Mark comes out betting $60. The other player calls. I raise to $120. Both players call. I don't know if Mark is leading with a bigger ace, a big flush draw, or what. The other player probably has a diamond. There is $940 in the pot. The turn is the 6h. Both players check to me. I bet and they both call. There is $1300 in the pot. The river is the Jc, putting two pair on the table. Both players check. What should I do?

[loki]

My gut feeling is check it through.

J could likely be in the BB's hand if he would defend his blind with KJ, QJ, JT type hands but not re-raise your three bet without having AA-QQ, AK.

Another thing that complicates this is your loose-agressive pre-flop-raiser that has check-called all streets up to here. Do you give him a pair or would he go this far with some kind of gutter either KT, KQ, T9, lone Ax?

If the 6 paired, then I would bet, believing my two pair with Q kicker
was best. The jack pairing throws the alarms in my head off.

let's read the BB's hand.

The BB bets the flop. This usually means a diamond, though it can mean an ace.

If he has a diamond, it is likley the Kd, since it is hard to play a hand with a ten in it for 2 bets cold. He could have TdTx.

If he has the Kd, his hand is either KdKx or KdAx. KdAx is more likely, since there was no 4 bet preflop. It is very unlikely this hand calls a bet. The AK will almost certainly call, as would another AQ (since it called the turn). It is extremely unlikely that the BB has Ax.

It is possible for BB to have flopped a small flush, 2pair, or a set, and have slowed down on the turn.

As for the original raiser, the most likely hands are:

a diamond with a gutshot, a diamond with a jack, or an ace with or without a diamond.

I think from all of this a check is in order. Hope it worked out.

[Michael J. Sykes]

Jim,

Although it seems likely that your hand is good, this is not a reason to bet the river. You believe that the loose player missed a flush draw and you describe Mark as very solid. If these assessments are accurate, then your river bet is more likely to be called by a superior hand than an inferior hand. There is also little chance of folding a superior hand but a significant risk of being check-raised. So if you have confidence in your opponent assessments, the choice is clear.

-MJS

[Clarkmeister]

I think we can rule out AK with or without a diamond from the BB. I find it hard to imagine him playing that hand in this manner. The overaggressive player could have anything, but given his description, he would have certainly let us know if we were beat on the turn. So I think it is safe to assume we were leading heading into the river.

On the river, the only hand that we are really worried about getting there is KdJx. That is one specific hand, and most likely one we can rule out for the BB. I further think that the LAG would have pushed his hand much harder with the nut draw. So I think that hand is unlikely either. I think you are looking at an ace which ties or loses to you, and some sort of gutshot/pocket pair with a diamond.

I bet, expect to be called in one place, and expect to take the pot.

[mikelow]

The rash answer is to check. What can you beat? But I would fire away with a bet. Reason is that unless the players are very tricky, your hand may be best. What would worry me is the BB having AK. But you could be up against
something like As10d, or a medium pair. Given the size of the pot you might get called by a worse hand. But I would (at the table) fold to a raise.

There are better spots to value bet - CHECK and avoid a possible check raise by a better hand.

[Ginogino]

The question, it seems to me, is what the big blind thinks you have. Your raise pre-flop looks like what it is: an attempt to isolate the loose aggressive player to your right. AQo is one of the better hands with which to isolate in your position. On the flop, your bet does not indicate anything better than minimum isolation material, and the appearance of the jack on the river (which makes it less likely that you have a jack yourself) would make it hard for either of your opponents (should either of them have a relative powerhouse -- XJ or AK) to check to you on the river, for fear that you will check yourself. That is to say, if they had power, they'd be afraid to check to you for fear you have a relatively weak hand. I believe that a bet on the river has positive EV, even if it is checkraised on rare occasions.

[afish]

Maybe I'm missing something, but this doesn't seem like a close one to me. You hand is almost surely good, but I can't see your opponents calling with anything that you beat (I don't think BB would play a weaker Ace than AJ), and the risk of a checkraise is just too great. If your opponents call, you're probably going to split with another AQ or lose to AK, a flush (unlikely), or a full house. Also, a checkraise puts you in an ugly spot, as you might muck the winner.

[Tommy Angelo]

Mark has a pocket pair with a flush draw and the other guy can't beat you either. Bet.

Tommy