Back to back steal opportunities.

[Hawkeye27]

These came up in back to back hands of a $30. Who pushes on either of them? With 3 similar small stacks I decided to pass and wait for a better opportunity. Comments?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter

UTG (t2700)
MP (t1305)
Button (t2205)
Hero (t980)
BB (t810)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t300

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter

BB (t2700)
UTG (t1305)
MP (t2205)
Hero (t880)
SB (t910)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Folded to me.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

I fold the first and push the second. JT fares slightly better against a random holding and is less likely to be dominated if called.

[sofere]

Push both of them.
Seeing as how your so short stacked on both, I'm assuming you hadn't been attempting to steal like crazy. Your not gonna get many more opportunities for it to be folded to you in small blind and your fold equity is all but gone in another orbit. At this point its steal while the stealing is good.

[Scuba Chuck]

First hand. It is probably correct for BB to call you with a wide range of hands. Or another way of saying it, his folding equity is slim to none if he folds, so he might take a gamble. I'd probably fold this one, and look to push against MP.

Second hand: I really don't like this one. I think this is a great of example of letting the SB push, and hopefully he makes the mistake. BB is getting 2:1 pot odds to call any push from you or SB, and it is not a significant portion of his stack. This looks like an unlikely "steal" ooportunity. I look to steal against UTG when I get a chance.

[rachelwxm]

both are EASIST push for me.

[Apathy]

I agree with you that the second one is not a push, but why fold K4o in the SB? I push this all day, especially when we both have less then 5 BBs I will even more hands then this. Your folding equity is not going to improve by waiting, this is probably the most you will have of any situation up coming. In the 30s lots of players will fold their BB even when they are less then 5 BBs.

[Voltron87]

1st hand I push, 2nd I might push if I think BB (T2700) is tighter rather than looser. If he's loose I fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

First hand: I think the answer here lies in the probability that you think you will be called. If you think the probability is less than 50%, then this might be a push. If not, then you're in a showdown. K4o against 'any two cards.' is a 52% favorite to win (according to the stove).

For example I believe the probability of being called here is quite close to 100%. Let's use 90% in our ICM numbers.

Folding = 13.0% of the equity prize pool
Pushing = 12.3% of the equity prize pool

If you assume that you will be able to steal 60% of the time, then ICM produces

Folding = 13.0% of the equity prize pool
Pushing = 14.4% of the equity prize pool

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
K4o against 'any two cards.' is a 52% favorite to win (according to the stove).


Let's use 90% in our ICM numbers.
Folding = 13.0% of the equity prize pool
Pushing = 12.3% of the equity prize pool


[/ QUOTE ]

How do these two reconcile ?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you that the second one is not a push, but why fold K4o in the SB?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the right answer. Perhaps pushing is correct here. Perhaps folding here gives your a higher probability of finishing third, and pushing here gives you a higher probability of finishing first. Ultimately, that might be what this comes down to.

I am interested in more thoughts on this. Coincidentally, I have reviewed my total recorded SnGs last night. I have a cumulative spreadsheet, and a more recent spreadsheet (about 250 recordings), where I began employing a more focused approach to recognize FE opportunities. Over the last 250 SnGs, my ITM % has shot up to 45% (last 250 only) from 37% (total 1,000 recordings), and subsequent inrease in ROI (quite a bit, but not telling). But my first place finish distribution has fallen, obviously resulting in a lot more 2nd and third place finishes.

I know in general, the forum philosophy is play for first, and settle for third. But I think this only applies to ITM strategy, not 5 handed. But I'm still a newbie at this, so...