River aggression.

nothumb · #1 12-09-2004, 02:49 AM

I have been noticing that my river aggression tends to be pretty low compared to my other stats. What is the breakdown for you guys between different streets, generally?

Anyway, here is a hand with an interesting river decision (I think).

I have AJo in MP1 at Paradise 2/4. Two loose, bad limpers to me and I raise, knocking out everyone else, and they both call.

Flop: 966 all red with two diamonds.

Checked to me and I bet. I have the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. One very loose, passive, awful caller.

Turn brings a black 4. Check, bet, call.

River brings the 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He checks.

I think I have the best hand here. At worst a split. I think he will call me with ace or king high, most likely, and possibly worse if he's curious. I also think that if he doesn't call me, it is valuable in that it gets people wondering. If he does call me, it is a sort of advertisement.

Good place for a value bet?

NT

Stu Pidasso · #2 12-09-2004, 03:08 AM

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Good place for a value bet?

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I don't think so.

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If he does call me, it is a sort of advertisement.

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Check it through. If you want people to advertise show them what you had even if your beat.

Stu

nothumb · #3 12-09-2004, 03:14 AM

Which do you think is better, checking down and letting this guy show his T-high or whatever he has, or betting and either A. having him fold or B. showing that he called you and can't beat your Ace high.

I prefer to bet, but also because I haven't been as aggressive on the river. I think when opponents get used to you letting it go through for free on the river they call with more cheese.

Again, in this scenario, assume you are 95% sure you have the best hand.

NT

littlejohn · #4 12-09-2004, 03:17 AM

Not sure that my numbers are any good but flop is 2.99, turn is 3.37 and river is 2.4

And I think you're going to be good here the 1 in 6 times you need to be to bet this. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see you lost to pocket 5's or 7's or something.

nothumb · #5 12-09-2004, 03:24 AM

I have in the past overbet an ace-high with 2 pair on board and gotten called by those crappy pairs. But this guy I knew well and had a good read and I think he leads either the flop or turn with one of those hands. He likes to forget what happened on previous streets a lot. Love those guys.

I was running the same way as you for a while, my river aggression is now up over 3 and I'm feeling better about life...

NT

CinnamonWind · #6 12-09-2004, 04:32 AM

I'd bet. He's shown no resistance yet. Why assume he will now? You not only have a chance to win by having him fold, but you may have the best hand. You're risking one BB (probably) to potentially avoid a split or win another BB in this spot. It's an easy bet.

Then again, I am super aggressive, so what do I know.

J.R. · #7 12-09-2004, 04:37 AM

You not only have a chance to win by having him fold, but you may have the best hand.

I'm stalking. Which is it? Actually, what better hand fold after getting to the river? And what worse ahnds pay off? Do you think a bare A folds now?

CinnamonWind · #8 12-09-2004, 04:48 AM

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You not only have a chance to win by having him fold, but you may have the best hand.

I'm stalking. Which is it? Actually, what better hand fold after getting to the river? And what worse ahnds pay off? Do you think a bare A folds now?

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I'm not sure if you're asking me these obvious questions to stalk me or test me, but you already know the answers.

It's both on the river. You bet because you a) may have the best hand and get called by K high or someone who is curious and b) may get a naked ace to fold and save yourself half the pot (weak players often put the PF raiser on a big pair).

You're not getting many better hands to fold, obviously. Yet it's also unlikely you're in against a better hand at this point, since they have shown no aggression. Probably a split at worst.

At 2-4, many worse hands pay you off. People will call you down here with Q high. So if they're weak and have a naked ace, your bet may save you half the pot, and if they're loose and hold a K-high, you're earning an extra BB. You're not often beat if they call you down, and so it's almost always at worst a split. But being the aggressor is almost always preferable in spots like this.

Bah, why am I writing all this? It's poker 101 stuff.

J.R. · #9 12-09-2004, 05:08 AM

You're not getting many better hands to fold, obviously....You're not often beat if they call you down, and so it's almost always at worst a split.

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You not only have a chance to win by having him fold

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So if they're weak and have a naked ace, your bet may save you half the pot

What were they doing calling the turn with A high if they are weak?

People will call you down here with Q high.

Sure there are folks like this, but how common are these people? Are these folks plus 3.25 times the number folks who will fold an Ace on the river > the number of guys who call with a better hand on this river? Yes, I'm giving you a hard time but this is what you have to consider, no?

But being the aggressor is almost always preferable in spots like this.

Sorry if its Poker 101 but I fail to why betting is superior to checking in a relatively loose passive game?

David BB · #10 12-09-2004, 05:08 AM

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I was running the same way as you for a while, my river aggression is now up over 3 and I'm feeling better about life...

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That sounds extremely high. I'm at 1.68 (compared to 3.58 on the flop and 3.36 on the turn) and I rarely shy away from a value bet.

I'd be interested in hearing some more numbers.