Final Three Decision Point

[Pensive Gerbil]

Nearly six hours into this no-limit tournament, I had been battling three-handed for some time when the weaker of my opponents, Fast Freddie, started moving all-in preflop around 33% of the time. My other opponent, Tired Tim, had been playing a relatively tight-aggressive style but I felt his discipline was breaking down in what had become a test of endurance. FF was the short-stack when he began pushing in; he doubled-up when I called him with AQ and when TT called him with 66. In a subsequent hand, TT (now the short-stack by a small amount) called FF's move-in with A7o and wound up splitting the pot. FF's frequent successful blind steals were taking a toll on TT and myself. The blinds were $1500-$3000 and the chip counts were approximately $140,000 for FF, $41,000 for myself, and $29,000 for TT when I picked up a pocket-pair in the small blind and had to decide whether to call another of FF's all-in moves from the button. The tournament paid $450 for third place, $730 for second, and $1050 for first. In light of the flat payout structure and TT's increasing willingness to take a stand with moderate hands, what is the smallest pocket pair with which I should be willing to call in this situation? Assume I only wish to maximize my tournament EV and do not care about the glory of a first place finish. [You may also assume that I had a large skill edge over FF and a small skill edge over TT.] Please register your opinion in the poll below and feel free to post your thoughts. Thanks!

-PG

[Pepsquad]

QQ, KK, AA. Something will happen here very soon between TT and FF. Stay outta the way until it's heads up or TT doubles up a couple times and slows FF down. Time is on your side.

[Apathy]

So you wouldnt call him with JJ here? if he is moving in with 33% of hands you arent going to be outplaying anyone by folding well over 90% of your hands to his bets. I could only see the argument of playing this tight if TT was a much shorter stack relative to you. But as it stands chips counts are too close to fold all those hands you are suggesting

-CPJ

[Michael J. Sykes]

Apathy, I suppose it's natural that you would disagree with Pepsquad. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] However, I agree with his point that TT will very soon play a hand for all his chips. If this confrontation does not include the gerbil and does not end in a split pot, then it would be the gerbil's turn to gamble with the shortest stack.

In regard to the gerbil's inquiry, how low would you go?

-MJS

[JaBlue]

If you muck JJ and then the other dude doubles up, what're you going to feel like? That's right, a complete moron.

[Pepsquad]

I would agree with your reply 99% of the time given any final three scenario JaBlue. But gerbil paints a very vivid picture to the point that I'd be shocked if one of two things didn't happen within the next 10-15 hands. TT is either gone or he has doubled-up. I'm waiting for that to happen before playing anything but my most premium hands. If TT doubles up, it's push time with any sensible holding.
If you push here and lose...KNOWING that there was a 50% chance you would have gotten heads up mere minutes later, wouldn't you you feel like a...complete moron? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Pep.

[MrX]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm waiting for that to happen before playing anything but my most premium hands. If TT doubles up, it's push time with any sensible holding.
If you push here and lose...KNOWING that there was a 50% chance you would have gotten heads up mere minutes later, wouldn't you you feel like a...complete moron? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Pep.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding JJ here is a crime; folding TT here is probably also a crime.

You are waiting for more premium hands..well JJ is a premium hand in this case, given the preflop raising standards of the aggro player. I cannot believe anyone would advocate folding JJ here.

I have not voted yet, although I know I would call with TT and higher for sure...probably 99, and maybe 88.

MrX

[nightlyraver]

Maybe I'm wrong here, but I feel that if FF is moving in 33% of the time, then a medium PP like 77 or even 66 is going to be the better hand the majority of the time. A move-in 33% of the time means you are pushing w/ hands like A2, K4, Q8 and perhaps even worse. I think that it's pretty weak to just sit back and wait for the chip leader to knock out TT.

[Pensive Gerbil]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm wrong here, but I feel that if FF is moving in 33% of the time, then a medium PP like 77 or even 66 is going to be the better hand the majority of the time. A move-in 33% of the time means you are pushing w/ hands like A2, K4, Q8....

[/ QUOTE ]

Though 77 is better than Q8, I would fold 77 if I knew FF had Q8. I would much prefer that TT engage in a coin flip with FF before I do.

-PG

[Roman]

77 and up seems reasonable.