99 15/30

bxpeter · #1 11-23-2004, 02:43 AM

No read...

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero raises, UTG+2 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.83 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.83 BB
Main Pot: 8.83 BB, won by UTG+2.
Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to UTG+2.

Is this how most of you play this?

TazQ · #2 11-23-2004, 02:53 AM

Why give yourself the chance to be outplayed on the river when you can see a showdown for the same price?

Do you think the "check/call, check/call, bet" line of a weak ace when someone has shown a lot of strength on earlier rounds applies here? They're quite different.

Chris Daddy Cool · #3 11-23-2004, 03:05 AM

how often do you expect to get called by AK here?

bxpeter · #4 11-23-2004, 03:33 AM

hmm i think AK will call every so often, but yes, probably not nearly enough to make this the correct way to play this. I always confuse when I should try these check call plays. Thinking about it now, this does not seem like a good time.

I guess I am only ahead of AK - leaving me ahead only around 37% of the time. On the flop, 8.66 SB's in the pot, so check-folding is out of the question. I guess the best way to go would be a flop checkraise and fold to a 3-bet or a raise on later streets. But he may slow down with his pairs and I would gain no information if he does...
Flop call, turn bet-out seems like it would be the same thing.

Is there a preferred way to play this?

meow_meow · #5 11-23-2004, 09:16 AM

It's fine until the river, then it's just terrible.
If you have him beat, you probably make more inducing the bluff then you do getting called by a lesser hand. If he has you beat, he's not going to fold for one more bet.

NabO · #6 11-23-2004, 11:22 AM

Here comes my analysis but i don't know if it's a good way to think... Assuming that the guy can reraise preflop only with AK, TT-AA and if in this situation he's got AK only 37% of the time. i can't see how playing in this situation can be a good think.
You've got 63% to be beaten with only 8.4% de hit a 9 and if he's got AK, you've something like 25% to be beaten by an A or K. With 7.5 sb preflop +2 sb on flop and 4sb on turn +4sb river it will cost you 5 sb to keep him honest, isn'it symply mathematicely non-profitable?
With this read of his hand i don't think so.