SnG sample size to determine if I should quit my job?

[AA suited]

How many SnG's should I play to determine if I should quit my job or not? (single, no kids, but own a house.)

I have 500 Sng's (quad table) at 30+3 and am averaging $25/hr, which is a little more than what I'm making right now. (I'm assuming 4 Sng's take 1 hr.)

I think 500 is too small of a sample size.

How many is enough?

[Phill S]

how many can you cover in a year 4-tabling?

seriously.

Phill

[lorinda]

Your sample size for the simple ROI is probably getting towards enough, HOWEVER, playing pro is different.

What's your ROI when playing 8 hours a day for 6 days a week?
What's your ROI when you wake up with the flu for the third day in a row and feel you had better play a couple of hours?

Have you established fully how long you can play before you burn out.... sadly we all burn out even if we feel fresh when replying to posts like this one I am now typing.

What I am trying to say is not _don't_ do it, but there are many more factors (And I listed just the first three I thought of) that are hidden drains on your winnings.

It is sadly much more complicated than saying you'll win $25 and hour and just multiplying through because your hours will have extended periods where they simply drop down due to you not feeling up to it and your ROI will have periods where it drops because you feel under the weather or simply get out of bed on the wrong side.

Some people are born with the "What the hell, if it goes wrong, I'll find a way" attitude, and some are not.

I don't know you, so that's not my call, but have a serious think about the issues here and also others that will no doubt add to this list.

Lori

[Killer Mike]

$25/hr before or after taxes?

[bucci]

Mathematically from another post, with 95% certainty

3.8/sqrt(#SnG you've played) = +/- your current ROI to find the possible swing in your ROI...


Read the other post in this thread about actually maintaining your level of play professionally. I'd keep the job, play 20hrs for awhile if i were you. build up a 100K bankroll like that over a few years, then see if it's still viable. That's the winning play.

[skirtus]

I guess I dont understand going pro when you already have a decent paying job. From what I understand you are making 40-50K now from your job. I assume the job has benefits and retirement plan of some sort. If your are single with no kids than playing 20-30 hours a week of poker should be no problem. That would give you an additional 25-40K on top of your income based on your current SnG stats. I dont love my job but leaving it for online poker seems insane. If I could make 50k from online poker, I would most likely start my own business or find a job with great benefits and a kickass retirement program.

[lorinda]

If I could make 50k from online poker, I would most likely start my own business or find a job with great benefits and a kickass retirement program.


This clearly shows the "other kind of person" that I've talked about in the past.
This is certainly no offense to skirtus, in fact those that don't want to go pro are, in general, far more rounded people.
It just highlights how different people can be.

For me, the thought of sitting around worrying about a retirement plan my whole life is really something I don't want to be doing.
For other people it is an essential part of their whole life plan.

Neither opinion is right (I'll include the usual arguments below to show this), it is all about what you feel comfortable with.

"What will you do when you retire lori?"
"Who cares? I'll be dead by then"
"What if you are not?"
"Hmmmm, oh well, something will come up"
"What if it doesn't?"
"Hmmmm, I'll have to make it"
"What about if you are incapacitated and so you can't do it?"
"Bah, if it goes wrong, and I have no savings and I am incapacitated, I'm going to hate a retirement either way"

And me asking them...

"Why do you want to waste your whole life working for someone else?"
"Because it means I can live in a nice house and support my family"
"But whats the point of a nice house and family if you never see them because you work so hard?"
"It will be worth it when I retire, you'll see."
"But you have loads of nice things that you hardly ever use, why not use them now?"
"Because I will cease to own nice things if I stop work, what if I get ill?"
"You'll find a way?"
"I'm not sure I would, what if I didn't?"
"You don't see many people who are looking for a job sleeping in the street, something would come up"
"I don't even want to take that risk, you'll see when I've retired to luxury and you're still playing $11-22 SNGs and posting on newsgroups"
"Well, you got me there, guess I better enjoy it all now then"



This is NOT a mock of those who do need the security, in 20-30 years time they will almost all be better off than me and living better lives than me.
I am simply unemployable by most people (I hate being told what to do by idiots, although I can actually take it from smart people... but given the IQ of the average successful London stockbroker is mid 90s, I can't see me getting through any training of any sort, and never could)

Both sides of the coin are utterly non-comprehendable by the other side.
I have learned to quote the "safe" argument parrot fashion, because I long since realised that the two views are so opposed that most people simply cannot understand why the people on the other side could possibly want to live their life that way.

Lori

[PrayingMantis]

Great post Lori.

[ QUOTE ]
I hate being told what to do by idiots

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, I'd much rather get outdrawn by idiots... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[skirtus]

Good post Lorinda. I think there will always be two schools of thought on this subject. Its definitely a personal choice that only you can make. I don't think there is a right or wrong answer. I would never look down upon anyone who made the decision to go pro. Good luck to you in your decision.

P.S. I like the usual arguments Lorinda. Im starting to sound like my parents. Ugh!

[byronkincaid]

I left work after I think 160 $55s with a ROI of 40% at the end of August. I almost immediately went on a horrible losing run. I'm going to work out my stats in a couple of days but I'm sure I'm less than 20% ROI now.

I only really survived by being lucky. First month I played a few $200s had a great run up 2-3k. Second month lost all that back at 200s but won 20k in a B&M tourney. I could very easily be back at work now.

Things I didn't think of were eye strain, weight gain, seemingly constant interuptions when I'm trying to play and I didn't realise just how hard it would be to get your 30/40 games in day in day out.

Having said that I still absolutely love it. I honestly can't think of anything I'd rather be doing for a living and I don't think there's too many people who can say that.