re: another weak river play?

i played a nightmare session at the Taj this weekend. I hadnt played in a few months and i felt i was faced with a lot of tough decisions. the "nightmare' was that two players who played virtually everyhand if the pot was unraised and at least 50% of the raised pots rolled over the table. I will be posting a few hands from this session for your thoughts.


The first is:


i make a straight to the king on fifth street. I have 9TQ on board. i have two opponents one with KdJdx in the door. He is a relatively good player. not that creative but tight and solid. will bet when he is supposed to and plays decently. on fourth street he raises for a free card (or thats what i read him for). other opponent has a Jx7 on fifth street. he is a straightforward player. he will bet everytime he has a high pair or better if it is checked to him, plays fairly decent cards on third street, but is weak when it comes to raising. i saw him just bet or check a few strong hands where it was clear he could get an extra bet. I checkraise the KJ on fifth street and both call.


Sixth street the Jx7 pairs his 7. i catch a blank and the flush draw catches an offsuit card. The 7's bet both opponents call.


on the river the 7's check. i check and the flush draw checks.


Comments on the river play?


Pat

It's true that you may be up against a full house and a flush. The sevens will usually call with two pair or trips. The flush draw will call with two pair. I would estimate that your bet will average you one call if you are best and cost you two bets if you are beat.


The check to you could mean two pair or a made full house or quads looking to check-raise the river. Such a play is unlikely give the player as you describe him, especially agaisnt three opponents unless you think he expects you to bet.


I would have bet the river, because better then three times out of four the flush misses, and a made full house will probably bet the river rather then check-raise. Your description of the player tells me that a check-raise is unlikely.


I think the play has positive expectation, because you win a little more than one bet approximately three times out of four. In other words, your likely to have the best hand everytime the flush misses, and your bet is likely to get called by at least one player and sometimes both. A little more than One fourth of the time you will get reraised by a made flush. But I think the call a little more than three times out of four makes up for it.

If Jx77 had a boat, he'd bet the river to generate a call or even a raise from possibe straight and/or flush. His check to me means 2 pair and you could bet for value. This probably would win you just 1 extra bet, as the 3rd player would fold without a made flush. However, this is going to expose you to a possible raise, by the KJ or a check-raise by paired board. So, you sould be able to trust your judgement of these 2 players to make this bet, because you'd fold to a raise from either. Otherwise, I'd be comfortable with your check here.

You are overthinking the hand. BET. Period. Your game will improve a lot if you don't worry about being check raised. If you never bet hands like this, you will NEVER be able to bluff because players will call you all the time, knowing you have either a MONSTER or NOTHING. Actually, this hand is closer to a monster unless you thought there was much of a chance the flush checked because he was afraid of a boat. Even if you get checked raised a few times, the amount of calls you get will far outweigh the number of check raises. Also, sometimes you may have misread a hand and the opponents don't have what you think they have. There's many strange players around, trust me.

you hit it on the head. I thought incorrectly that i could get checkraised. but i think given the player he would have just bet.


Pat