2nd Round of Taj $500 NL Tourny

[mullaney]

My stack is just under where we started at 875 (from 1000), the blinds are 15/25. UTG+1 has just sat down, so I hadn't seen him play yet.

UTG+1 raises to 75, MP calls (he has been LAG preflop), I call from the button with the black jacks.

The flop comes:

A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG+1 checks, MP bets 75 into a pot 265 pot.

I have both of the other two players covered by a very small amount. What's my play? I feel like any reasonable raise commits me to the pot, so is it better to just push?

[37offsuit]

UTG is going away unless he was trapping, so you're looking at what will be a heads up situation.

If you want to take this pot down right now or make a draw pay to chase you, push.

I might call and see what the UTG player does and also what the turn brings, since you have position here. If you call and the next card makes your opponent's hand it should be fairly obvious, basically a T, K or any diamond would be a bad card. Likely if he's on a hand like a pair and a straight or flush draw, he might check it to you if he makes it, giving you a free chance for the board to pair.

If the turn is a blank and he checks to you, make him pay to chase you.

The pure numberists would say to bet enough to make him wrong to chase you and hope he does and that, over time, is certainly the right strategy.

If, however, you want you want to take all his chips and think he'll fold to an all in bet unless he has the nuts and you don't mind gambling to do so, then try to string him along in this situation.

[gergery]

I bet around 300 here. I'm betting for value, and want a call from AQ, AT type hands.

Flat calling here is terrible unless he has specifically KT you have the best hand, and you must make others pay to stay. Any diamond, K, T or A could give someone else the best hand and that a lot of cards to give someone a free shot to bust you, and its a lot of kind of hands where someone will be willing to pay more to see a card.

Pushing is terrible because its still early in the tourney and you need chips, and it gives up way too much EV.

--Greg

[McMelchior]

I think the problems boils down to: Is there any way you can get away from this hand?

If you flat call and an Ace, a Queen, a King, a Ten or a low Diamond turns and one of your opponents moves in, are you going to fold?

I wouldn't. I would be concerned if one of the overcards paired, but not enough to fold my boat. Even if I'm beat (and there's no specific reason to believe that I would be, excluding pocket QQ or AA, in which case you're beat anyway) you'll have at least one and probably a number of outs on the river.

So the problem is about how to extract the most from your opponents. I would consider a minimum raise - that would have a good shot at liven any AQ, AJ or even QJ up.

Don't forget, most people just will not put you on a set (and for good reasons, they're pretty rare). You have to be pretty paranoid to fear KT here ... but with a minimum raise you'll have a good shot at keeping an AK or KQ in in the pot. T875 is not a whole lot of chips to hold onto an hour or more into the tournament, and you should take the opportunity to double (or in your luckiest case even tripple) up here.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[mullaney]

Thanks for the thoughts. I did push and both players called. They were both on KT. Ah well, if the board had paired, I would had quite a stack early.

[McMelchior]

I ran twodimes on the cards you describe ... if no flush draws were involved you were actually a small favorite with 36% chance of winning (and more than trippling up). It's only against one player with a made straight with a 4-flush and one player with T2P - at the same time - that you become a serious underdog ...

You might not have chosen to put your chips in against stone sure callers with only a small positive expected value, but getting all of them in there was in no way a poor play.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)